Prognostications and other thoughts

Stunning Picture

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 15:44:00 +0000

This is from Business Week's article on Tata Motors. Tata Motors is about to release the world's cheapest car.

Man, here in the US we worry about having enough space and get bigger and bigger SUVs. A family of 6 would require something of Suburban proportions. Yet these folks are crammed on to a motorcycle!

Fishing with Pop Pop

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Sun, 22 Apr 2007 21:24:00 +0000

Lily, Sin, and Finn went fishing with Pop Pop on an overcast Saturday in April.

We didn't catch any fish, but had a great time!

Panama--Yahoo!

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Mon, 05 Feb 2007 19:38:00 +0000

Check out the Yahoo! Content Match ad here. My page is entirely about bikes and triathlons. The relevancy of this ad is TERRIBLE.

Hopefully Panama will fix this.

ACL Surgery

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Fri, 12 Jan 2007 20:35:00 +0000

ACL Replacement Surgery

On September 14th, 2006, I was playing Flag Football with a bunch of
coworkers.

I made some kind of cut while running with the ball and somehow fell over my
knee while bending it backward and coming down with a lot of force.

It took a few months for this to heal and rehab. On January 8th, 2007, I had
ACL replacement surgery.

The surgery

The surgery requires that you be fully put under using a general anesthetic.
Coincidentally, the anesthesiologist that did my IV was the same one who
performed my wife's first epidural. The epidural is risky because a needle is
put right in to the spinal cord. However, what was interesting to me is how much
more involved he'd have to be in my surgery. In other words, with an epidural,
it is difficult to insert/set up, but once done, the Doctor usually leaves and
only comes back occasionally. For the 2 1/2 hours of my operation, the
anesthesiologist had to be in the operating room the whole time. In any case,
Steve was amazing; I couldn't even feel the first needle that was used to numb
the area for the IV.

I saw my main Doc, Alan Mishra about 30
minutes later. Then, I was out. Woke up at 12:30 completely out of it and
nauseous, with my belly itching. This is a reaction to opiates.

About 30 minutes later, Alan and his assistant, Amy, came by for a brief chat. I
was then discharged; had to cut my shorts to fit them over the huge cast.

My dad drove me home; I was still in a delirious state. I was supposed to
take Percocet (Acetaminophen and Codeine) every 4 hours. Things were reasonably
manageable; the main goal is to keep the knee elevated higher than the heart to
reduce swelling. It was difficult to sit like this but doable. Getting up to go
to the bathroom is a challenge, however.

Eventually, as the drugs wore off, there was noticeable pain, especially
after getting up or sitting back down, as the blood rushes back. By 6AM the
second day, it was unbearable; i doubled the dose two times in a row; that
worked. That second night/morning, same thing happened though.

On day 3, things are much better; I can move without as much pain, but my leg
still feels very week. I have to lower/raise it with the other foot or my hands.

Here are some pictures

Removing old damage-this is scar tissue on the inside of my knee cap
from old injuries. The furry stuff is scar tissue.

The injured ACL. The pink strip you see is all that was left of the
ACL after the tear.

Below is the new ACL in place. Note how much larger it is (roughly the
same scale). This is from a cadaver--from an achilles tendon

This is a crude comparison between the old/torn ACL and the new one.
The pink overlay is the width of the old one.

This is a shot of the 9MM hole that was drilled in to the knee to pass
the ACL and connect with screws.

And here is a video of the cleanup of the back of the knee cap.

2007 Prognostications

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Thu, 11 Jan 2007 22:28:00 +0000

'06 Prognostications: Recapping 2006, last year was mostly rants, but here are some notable updates.

Cycling: I bet that Ivan Basso would win the Tour of Italy (Giro de Italia) but not the Tour de France. And that Jan Ulrich would win the TDF with Alexander Vinokourav winning multiple stages. Basso won the Giro but all three were tossed out for a doping scandal. Floyd Landis won the TDF though is also accused of doping and will likely loose his title.

Satellite Radio.Sirius (SIRI) and XM (XMSR), as predicted, fell ~50% YOY. I don't think there is enough content to justify a thriving existence, let alone two of them. They are no more than the MUZAK of this decade. And Muzak has been unprofitable for years.

Celebrities. Either I am just getting older, or it's getting worse. The media preoccupation with Brad & Angelina, Paris Hilton, and Britney Spears is so TIRED; that they continue to recycle them over and over is painful. Who the hell cares about any of them?

On a different note, we lost a lot of people this year. Most recently, Saddam Hussein, Gerald Ford, James Brown--what a strange combination. However, the saddest death has to be Steve Irwin, aka The Crocodile Hunter. He probably did more than any naturalist/personality to get young people involved and tuned in to animals and nature than any one since Marlin Perkins (and Jim Fowler) from Mutual of Omaha's Wild Kingdom.

YouTube. YouTube is a great service; try uploading a video; it's pretty darn easy. This being said, not sure if the BILLIONS spent by Google justify the costs. Plus, the founders are a bunch of incredibly lucky dorks. Check out their video here. I think web-based video is a great convenience and allows longer shelf-life of news and entertainment. Kudos to Google for taking the gamble. But I am not convinced that it is the killer advertising solution that it's hyped to be.

Apple iPod. Though obvious, this has to be the device of the decade. It's incredible how ubiquitous it has become; amazing how new options in cars are "iPod compatible".

2007 ThoughtsWhew, after a few years of sort of having a feeling of what would come next, looking in to 2007, I am pretty baffled. Nothing seems that obvious—more, just subtle. It feels like America is productive yet our foreign policy is alienating other countries. There also seems to be a certain laziness and internal distraction; other countries are working harder and growing faster. As a world power, America is losing it's edge by being a poor leader and lackluster competitor. This makes America suddenly vulnerable in unfamiliar ways.
Here are a few things that seem evident:

Malaise of America. There seems to be a huge disconnect between US Citizens and the Agenda of the Government, especially “War in Iraq” and Global Warming. American citizens are focused on their own realities—paying the bills, getting lattes at Starbucks, and getting their perfectly packaged goods at Trader Joes, Whole Foods, Walmart, and Costco. Iraq is detached and foreign sounding words like "shiite" and "sunni" help to marginalize the conflict as background noise. Global Warming is like a warning from the Surgeon’s General to “not drink while pregnant” or “cigarette smoking can cause cancer”. In other words, there is a vast disconnect between the agenda of the Nation and the pursuit of actualization by individuals. There is a dangerous inconsistency between American Policy and the people of the Nation; they are not in agreement. This is a new and
overwhelming sentiment that rests in the subconscious of most Americans. They don't agree with the Nation's policies but feel powerless to make change. Further, they justify they are busy with their own pursuits so simply don't try to reconnect or make a difference. It is too overwhelming yet non-specific at the same time. As a result, in 2007, there will be a growing sentiment for change, ripe for the '08 elections. Americans want to feel empowered and cohesive. This will lead to growing nationalism. Expect this to manifest in pop culture: Country/Country Rock music; there will be new hits from John Cougar, Brian Adams, Jewell, Melissa Etheridge, and/or Bruce Springsteen. There will be new TV shows dedicated to political debate that attempt to simplify issues for the masses and even allow interactive "voting" on issues.

Global Warming.
If you haven't seen An Inconvenient Truth, you must. It is a riveting documentary by Al Gore, and the statistics seem irrefutable. Bottom line: the atmosphere of the Earth is getting polluted too rapidly; heat from the sun cannot reflect back because it is trapped by carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, sending heat back to earth which elevates temperatures. Back to the cancer analogy, it seems that the WORLD has been given a terrible and terminal diagnosis. And time is running out. Unfortunately, there isn't universal recognition of the problem -- we live in denial -- and there is no cohesive plan of action to combat the effects of pollution-caused global warming. It's chilling to think that the movie was produced ~a year ago--and predicted the extinction of Polar Bears due to the rapid melting of the North Pole. Just this week, news reports surfaced confirming the Polar Bear's plight. Ironic that the canary in the coal mine is now one thousand+pounds, 10 feet long, and one of the world's apex predators. Interestingly, during the gas crisis of 2006, most Americans were motivated to rethink their car choices because of high gas prices, NOT emissions related to global warming, though both are deeply linked. It shows how people react to acute pain versus vaguer sentiments. To that end, if one is concerned about global warming, it might be beneficial to first think of a car that emits fewer emissions versus one that gets better gas mileage.

Morality and Business

It strikes me that morality and ethics seem to be less taught in the home. Rather, companies, seem to be reminders of environmental concerns, social liberalism, and cultural awareness. How strange to have an employer lead the way. Speaking of, what might be hopeful (or, unfortunately, just hype) is Social Entrepreneurship. This seems to be a growing fad--dot-com-derived companies that aim to do good for humanity. Of course, most are not true non-profits, and you can bet the founders are bent on making their own fortunes on the way to saving the world, or their view of it. Regardless, the attempts are noble.

What stocks to pick?
There is something fundamentally wrong with the stock market; stock prices fluctuate based on revenue growth. This implies that if a company is not growing, it is "bad". But would you say that companies like Microsoft and Walmart are "bad"? No, they are incredibly well run--but they are so big it is difficult for them to grow any more.

In any case, this year's stock market showed how difficult it was to pick individual US stocks. There simply isn't growth that we've come to expect. The opportunity lies in International growth--and International is much harder to understand. This pursuit of money will lead to a more broadly educated investment community; this is cool. However, the barrier to entry is becoming steeper. It is difficult to understand, get information, and invest in International companies. Luckily, there are
ETF's that enable the average investor get International exposure. The big winners will understand the details of supply/demand by country.

Video Games: Nintendo WiiI was never a big video game fan, though my buddy Larry Boyle and I used to spend $3 worth of quarters at the arcades back in High School. But video games are here to stay -- this year, Sony announced it's Playstation 3 and Nintendo the Wii, to play catch up to Microsoft's Xbox 360. These are big companies putting big bets. And video games, as Brian Fitzgerald says, will likely become instrumental in the childhood education process in the near future.
Unfortunately, most consoles and games are "first person shooter" based where the goal is to kill other people or things. Pretty bad material for kids. But the Nintendo Wii is different. It uses an interactive controller that lets you physically simulate the game. Plus, a lot of their game titles are more kid/family-friendly. I think this device may be a real game changer; hopefully Nintendo will open up it's developer community, something they have been slow to do historically.

Google and Yahoo! Google acts fast; that's impressive. For instance, less than 2 months after their purchase of YouTube, I got an email from their AdSense program (syndicated web site ads). They were announcing new ad creatives that included Video. On the flip side, Yahoo and Ebay announced a partnership where Yahoo would serve media ads on eBay. More than six months later, I'm not sure if they are on the site. However, I'm not convinced that Google will retain it's growth for much longer. They seem to be placing a lot of wide bets, but not many new initiatives are taking hold. Their investment in radio advertising is compelling, though. Meanwhile, Yahoo has many more assets than Google, the key is to figure out how to monetize them better. Too bad the company has been going through such a public pounding.

Wikipedia

This is the collaborative web done right. Search for almost any athlete or actor and you'll likely find a wikipedia result. And the content is excellent; there is an implied trust that what gets posted is bona fide. Really neat to see this utopian idea get executed so well. Meanwhile, keep an eye on the parent company, Wikia, Inc. They are rumored to be creating a search engine that leverages user feedback to improve relevancy. This could be huge.

Microsoft
I think this year, the giant awakes. While their new release of Vista will be a whimper, not a bang, they have the capital and ingenuity to make big strides.

Sports.

I'm sick of all the steroid/drug use. It really takes the enjoyment out when
everything seems to have a catch. Regardless, of the sports I care about:
-Super Bowl. Eagles vs. San Diego Chargers.
-Tour De France. Ivan Basso, unless Vinokourav's team makes it to the TDF,
then he will win.
-Barry Bonds: will play next year but have tragic injury broadcast live.
-Michael Vick of the Atlanta Falcons, the highest paid player in history,
will go the way of
Kordell Stewart.
-Brett Favre will play one more year.

The next PresidentWho do you think will be the next President?
Obama, Edwards, Clinton, McClain, Condi Rice, some one else? I think it will be someone else.

Companies to watch:
Wikia, Coghead,Progio.

3rd Quarter 2006

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Fri, 27 Oct 2006 12:12:00 +0000

Mkt Cap #'s from 1 week past earnings

Yahoo:
Revenues: 1.58 billion (+19%)
Net income: 202 million
Net Revenue: 1.21 billion
Mkt Cap: 34.9 billion

Google
Revenues: 2.69 billion (+70%)
Net income: 733 million
Net Revenue: 733 million
Mkt Cap: 147 billion

Ebay
Revenues: 1.449 billion (+31%)
Net income: 281 million (+10%)
Net Revenues: 1.049 billion (+22%)
Mkt cap: 46.9 billion

Turning 40

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Fri, 15 Sep 2006 23:38:00 +0000

So, on Thursday, Sept 14th, I was hoping to head out of work early to go on a 3 day mountain bike ride/camping trip with 4 of my best friends to celebrate turning 40 on Sept 15th. Unfortunately, at work, there was a prearanged flag football game.

Well, my team was down, 28-7. It was time to get serious. The ball was handed off to me and I started running. Billy was coming at me so I cut left, then right, jumped, came down, and somehow I think my cleat stuck. I think my leg somehow bent back and to the left, kind of like this guy:

Needless to say, I crumpled to the ground. The pain was mounting and I thought about the damn mountain biking trip--i don't think i'll be able to ride. Unfortunately, I couldn't get up and needed to be walked off the field...and then to my car.
I called my sister and brother-in-law. He is an ER doc and she is a GI doc. Went to their house for motrin and crutches and he snuck me in to the local ER for a knee immobilizer. Meanwhile, my friends decided to cancel the trip, which was probably for the better as it hit 27 degrees that night.

Here's another picture of the knee; the one on the left is normal, the one on the right is, um, not.
And here is it larger.

2nd Quarter 2006

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Mon, 24 Jul 2006 13:37:00 +0000

Yahoo
Revenues: $1.576 billion
Net Income: $230 million
Mkt Cap: $36.47 billion

Google
Revenues: $2.46 billion
Net Income: $721 million
Mkt Cap: $118 billion

Ebay
Revenues: 1.411 billion
Net Income: $250 million
Market Cap: $33.72 billion

Bad day for Yahoo! Stock

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Thu, 20 Jul 2006 03:35:00 +0000

For context, it's a good idea to listen to the archived conference call. Terry/Sue should be given big props for saying/acting that this company is in it for the long haul--that they aren't driven by quarter to quarter but long term.
Seems like the investment community didn't want to hear it though:

Yahoo Stock Falls to Biggest One-Day Drop
Thursday July 20, 1:47 am ET
By Michael Liedtke, AP Business Writer
Yahoo Stock Price Tumbles by Nearly 22 Percent, Marking Its Largest One-Day Drop Ever

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Yahoo's stock price plunged by nearly 22 percent Wednesday, marking its largest one-day drop ever after the Internet powerhouse postponed a pivotal change to the advertising formula that propels its profits.

The Sunnyvale, Calif.-based company jarred Wall Street with the unexpected delay late Tuesday after announcing solid second-quarter results that mirrored analyst estimates.

On Wednesday, Yahoo Inc.'s shares plummeted $7.04, or 21.8 percent, to close at $25.20 on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The downturn surpassed a 20.9 percent downturn in Yahoo's stock in October 2000 after the company warned investors it was about to be hard hit by the dot-com bust.

The wipeout erased about $10.4 billion in shareholder wealth.

At one point, Yahoo's shares sold for as little as $25.04 -- the cheapest since April 2004.

Here's Yahoo's problem as Wall Street sees it: the owner of the Internet's most trafficked Web site keeps raking in more money as advertisers continue to shift their spending online, but it still lags well behind search engine leader Google Inc.

And now it looks like Yahoo won't be closing that gap as soon as management had promised.

"I can sense the frustration of investors," said Piper Jaffray analyst Safa Rashtchy. "It's discouraging and disheartening, especially because Yahoo didn't really give a good reason for the delay."

Rashtchy is maintaining his "outperform" rating on Yahoo's stock, although he lowered his 12-month target for the shares from $42 to $36.

Other analysts weren't as forgiving. For instance, JP Morgan Securities analyst Imran Khan downgraded Yahoo's stock to "neutral" and expressed doubts whether the company will even be able up to live up to its financial projections for the rest of the year. He also believes Yahoo is destined to fall further behind in its technology race with Google, which will provide an update on its progress Thursday when it is scheduled to release its second-quarter results.

Yahoo's bad news didn't take a big toll on Google, whose shares dipped $4.05, or 1 percent, to close at $399 on the Nasdaq. Google's market value of about $120 billion is now more than three times greater than Yahoo's.

Despite Wednesday's harsh backlash against Yahoo, the company isn't exactly struggling. Second-quarter revenue rose 26 percent to $1.58 billion and, after stripping out windfalls and accounting changes that pushed up last year's results, earnings rose 8 percent to $164 million.

Numbers like that are just one of the reasons market observers like ThinkEquity Partners analyst Stewart Barry view Yahoo's stock as a bargain right now.

Wednesday's sell-off wouldn't have been so severe if Yahoo Chairman Terry Semel and his management team hadn't delayed a much-anticipated change in the company's formula for displaying ad links by one to three months.

Investors have been eagerly awaiting the new ad platform, hoping the improvements would enable Yahoo to do a better job displaying short ads. The clicks on those ads, which typically appear as text on the top and sides of Web pages, are critical because they trigger commissions for Yahoo and its partners.

Google's financial growth during the past two years has outstripped Yahoo's partly because it has developed a better formula for determining which ads to display alongside search results -- an advantage that even Semel concedes.

"We are not monetizing as well and it is costing us a lot of money," Semel said Tuesday in an interview.

Because Google closely guards it technology secrets, its advertising formula remains one of the Internet's great mysteries.

But this much is clear: Google has been far more adept than Yahoo at analyzing what people are entering into a search box or reading on a Web page and then quickly deciphering which ads are most likely to gain attention to possibly garner a revenue-producing click.

Although Yahoo holds an advantage over its rival in serving up visual advertising, search advertising for now is the biggest moneymaking channel, which is why Yahoo has been working on fixing its biggest shortcoming for more than a year under a project code-named "Panama."

In May, Yahoo raised hopes by telling analysts it planned to start rolling out the search advertising changes in the third quarter and complete the process in the fourth quarter.

Yahoo now doesn't expect its new approach to be fully deployed until early next year. Semel said Yahoo didn't want to risk a hiccup as advertisers ramped up their spending for the holiday season.

"We feel terrific about (the new formula) and know the importance of it," Semel said. "There is nothing wrong or nothing we are upset about."

Yahoo still boasts the Internet's largest audience with 402 million unique users. But it has been losing favor among investors as Google has widened its lead in the lucrative search market.

Through June, Google held a 44.7 percent share of the U.S. search engine market, up from 36.9 percent at the same time last year, according to comScore Media Metrix. Yahoo ranked second with a 28.5 percent share, down from 30.4 percent a year ago, comScore said.

Wow. Times they are a changin'

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Sun, 25 Jun 2006 05:46:00 +0000

I just got back from a one week vacation to Cape Cod. Wonderful trip--more on that later.

Regardless, amazingly, a lot has changed at work in this past week.

Satya, Jason, Brian, and David, have all quit. It is/was their last week. All of these guys were in Yahoo! Shopping at one point or another. Fuggin A.

Butterfly Release!

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Tue, 13 Jun 2006 15:27:00 +0000

Aunt Sinda bought a butterfly kit for Lily.
We watched the caterpillars grow and grow then turn into pupaes, hanging upside down.
About a week later, they emerged from their chrysalises. Their wings even dripped some meconium as they dried. They ate sugar water and juice from cut oranges. A few days later, Lily released them.

External Hard Drives-Cheap insurance?

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Wed, 07 Jun 2006 05:13:00 +0000

My Sony Vaio RS420 is only 1 1/2 years old, yet it's already been replaced by newer Sony Desktops.
In any case, it's been acting kind of funky of late; unexpectedly shutting down for no reason. I decide it was time for some cheap insurance--for all the priceless data that's on the hard drive.

I just received my Seagate ST3400601CB-RK. It's an external hard drive that has 400GB of storage and has both fire wire (faster) and usb 1 (much slower) compatibility. Since my original hard drive is only 120GB, I figure this should be future-proof for a while, and at around $300, it seems reasonably priced. Wow, remember the days when $1/meg was a big deal; this is $.75/gig!.

In any case, it's cranking away at it's first backup; estimated at 2 hours. But once the first is done, incremental backups should take just minutes. Pretty cool.

Uvas Triathlon 5/21/06

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Sat, 27 May 2006 05:26:00 +0000

Got 5 hours of sleep then headed down to Uvas resevoir for a triathlon on Sunday at 5:30 in the morning (same day as the Bay to Breakers) for this mini-triathlon. 3/4 mile swim, 16 mile bike, 5 mile run.

It was raining and I was late getting there. I was *totally* not in to it and contemplated just turning around and going back to sleep. But I went through the process. The swim was suprisingly comfortable and I started enjoying it. Got out on the bike and it started feeling much better; was passing others quickly. Unfortunately an elderly person decided to drive her car in the middle of the race which held up a bunch of us riders--then the rain started coming down heavily. Nervous Nelly, I slowed up on the descents and a few of the guys I'd passed went by. Ended up passing them all on the flat sections, averaging 20+_ mph, and went on to run. Wow--only 5 miles; by mile 2 I was feeling pretty psyched---this is a short run! Despite my aching achilles, managed to clip off a respectable 6:46 pace. Ended up finishing 12th-age group and 44th overall.

Finished the race, ate some food, and was home by noon.

These shorter races are actually a lot of fun.

Wildflower 2006 triathlon

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Wed, 10 May 2006 15:46:00 +0000

Yet another glorious Wildflower Weekend. Because of the new age-rank system, I was able to compete with my long time pals, Derrill (sunday) and Larry (saturday), in the same waves. This meant I was in the 40-45 age group. We haven't competed together since 1992, so it was quite a reunion

Here are the results:
- Linda Gallo was the first woman out of the water with a 24:29 1.2 mile swim. She ended up 7th with a smoking 4:54. Awesome!

- My arch nemisis, Keish Doi, was up only 30 seconds on me after the swim+bike but then he managed to destroy the run with a 1:33 time-7:17 pace, finishing in 4:53.- I was out of running shape and the achilles was really hurting-lost 19 minutes on the run to Keish ending with a personal worst of 5:14. My best time was way back in 1991- 4:47. I haven't gone under 5 hours since 2000.

- Jimmy had a PR of 6:07 with no IV after!

- Larry put in a very respectable time despite not being able to do any training over 2 hours and a serious hamstring/glute injury, finishing in 5:25 (his PR is 4:34)

International course-- Keish talked me in to doing the shorter course on the second day. He ended up putting 1:30 into me, swim+bike

- Was amazed to see Derrill swim past me after the first turn!

- I had a good bike, averaging nearly 20 mph but then had to drop out of the run in the tranistion area. It was (and still is) difficult to walk, let alone run

- Derrill turned in a 2:35 and Gary a 3:30, Keish 2:23 (10th place).

It's incredible how hard it is to stay in shape through the years. During my 20's, I placed top 10. 30's-top 20. Ugh, now it's "top 30". It becomes less about racing and more about just "enjoying the event".

Training for the race, I increased swimming year over year but came up short in running and cycling. The deficit in bike/run definitely was costly.

Results for Long Course:
Swim: 84% more yardage in training. 4% faster swim time
Bike: 5% less mileage in training. 3% slower bike
Run: 21% less mileage in training. 5% slower run
Overall: 3% slower.

Q1 Numbers

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Fri, 21 Apr 2006 15:40:00 +0000

Here's how Q1 '06 Stacked up
Stock NetIncome NetRev RevYOY MktCap
YHOO 160 M 1.57 B 34% 47.5B
EBAY 248 M 1.39 B 35% 49.3B
GOOG 592 M 2.25 B 79% 133.0B

Car review: Toyota Highlander Hybrid

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Wed, 12 Apr 2006 05:58:00 +0000

Our '98 Land Cruiser is in the shop for a major tune up/smog cert. I decided to get a rental car, and for $9/day, Toytota 101 gave us the Highlander Hybrid. Wow. This is probably the most all-around capable car I've ever been in.

Road Test:
- 0-60 in 6.6 sec according to Motor Trend. My Audi A6 4.2 is supposed to do that in 6.7 seconds. So I tested both (in the rain). According to my stopwatch, the Highlander did it in 7.66 seconds. The Audi in 7.67.
- Driving through mud. There is a section of dirt I park in to go running. It is now a saturated mud bog because of the rain. When I drive the big old Land Cruiser in there, it starts to slip and slide as the huge tires get gummed up. The Audi, with it's also huge low profile tires, overcompensates with it's anti-skid control and also bogs down in the mud. The Highlander, with taller/skinner tires just dug in and plowed through with the least drama.
- Braking in wet/Anti Skid control. The Anti Skid is much more advanced in the Toyota. It doesn't kick in as abrubtly as the Audi's.

Specs:
Gas mileage: claimed 27/30 mpg, though a lot of owners have complained it "only" gets 25 mpg. That's 127% better than the Land Cruiser and 47% better than the Audi.
If you drive 15k miles a year, at 3$ a gallon:
- Land Cruiser (11 mpg): $4091
- Audi (17 mpg): $2647
- Highlander (25 mpg): $1800.
Over 5 years, the Highlander would save nearly $11,500 vs the Land Cruiser and $4,235 vs the Audi in gas costs! There is a site that describes exhaust emissions; the Land Cruiser would dump over 6000 pounds in a year; the Highlander, 3000 pounds.

Cargo Capacity: This is what's great about the Land Cruiser; it hauls all of our camping crap; 60 cubic feet behind the middle row. The Highlander is 50 cubic feet.
The real test is putting the baby jogger in the back without having to disassemble; easy with the Land Cruiser. I tried in the Highlander-didn't quite fit. Then I noticed that the 2/3, 1/3 rear seats are on rails and you can easily move the seats up. Presto-baby jogger fits!

3rd Row Seating: The Land Cruiser has removable 3rd row seats. They have terrible leg room but workable in a pinch. At first I thought the highlander didn't have a third row-it is so cleverly packaged, they fold in to the floor. Leg room is definitely worse, but still available for small kids.

Rear Seat Comfort: The rear seat of the Land Cruiser is our daughter's playground. She has all of her toys back there. It has enough leg room to be comfortable for me, even if the front seats are all the way back (I am 6 feet tall). Guess what-the Highlander felt just as roomy. Also, you can actually recline the rear seats!

Front Seat Comfort: I really like not being too cramped. The audi feels spacious. Highlander-even more! The only thing wrong with the Highlander is the steering wheel doesn't telescope.

Navigation: My Audi has a first gen nav system. It's useless and impossible to operate. The Land Cruiser has none. The Highlander has the bad-ass ones with the real time map. Impressive.

Sound System: Though not great, the amp has more watts than either the Land Cruiser or the Audi. Upgrading speakers would make it rock.

Safety: The Land Cruiser has front air bags. The Audi and Highlander have front plus front/rear side airbags. In crash tests, the Highlander received "Good" and "Excellent" ratings; the Audi received "Good" and "Fair" ratings.

Driving the Highlander.
So, like the Prius, hybrids are different. When you start them up, it's silent. The Highlander doesn't have the goofy key fob/sensor, just a regular key. Perhaps the biggest drawbacks is the weird feeling of the continuously variable transmission. It sort of lurches as it changes ratios. And the noise of the engine(s) under power isn't pretty. But when cruising, it's incredibly quiet.

Availability:
The most amazing thing-after years of waiting for these things, dealers actually have a ton of them. On the phone, the sales rep said their asking price is $42k fully loaded. But without prompting, he said he'd easily drop to $39k. They have 2.9% financing and really low lease rates as well.

What's wrong with it?
The Highlander is kind of butt-ugly. There isn't a lot of road feedback through the steering wheel. It doesn't "feel" as fast as it is. It doesn't have as much room as the Land Cruiser. It doesn't have real 4wd capability (tho, does that really matter?). And there aren't a lot of used ones--getting a used one will only save aout $3k.

I love our land cruiser but want to unload it before it becomes unsellable as gas prices keep climbing. It's got 120k plus horrid gas mileage. Now if I can only convince my wife...

IRD Compact Cranks

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Wed, 05 Apr 2006 16:59:00 +0000

(click for larger image)
Larry Norris ordered these IRD compact cranks. Here's how they compare to the Ritchey Carbon Compacts.
- They are lighter and weigh as claimed, 545 grams.
- Finish is slightly better. Look at the pedal hole for the non-drive side; carbon runs completely to the edges. This must mean they have separate molds for each arm length-unlike ritchey.
- Tolerance between thickness of the chain ring and crank itself is higher. Meaning there is less of a ridge between the crank and the chain ring.

I guess IRD has been doing carbon cranks a little bit longer than Ritchey. Not sure what final retail prices are for either so the verdict's still out on value.

New bike! Scott Plasma

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Mon, 03 Apr 2006 02:27:00 +0000

Just got this SWEET new triathlon bike frame. Had it built up of mostly "spare" components.
Read the whole thing here.

Review: Ritchey WCS Carbon Cranks

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Mon, 27 Mar 2006 16:34:00 +0000

(click for large image)
My neighbor is Steven Parke, GM of Ritchey Design. This weekend, he was nice enough to drop off these sweet new carbon cranks this Saturday for some beta testing. They feature 50/34 crank rings (compact gearing).
General Impressions
The cranks are very elegant, similar in finish to the FSA Carbon Super Lights. With rings, without bolts, they weigh 565 grams.
FSA Super Light: 515 grams
Dura Ace 9-speed: 575 grams
IRD Mosaic Carbon C: 545 grams (claimed)

Ritchey and IRD are really the only companies around that support the "Octalink" bottom bracket design found in 9-speed Shimano drivetrain products. FSA no longer makes octalink-compatible--offering ISIS or their own crank/bottom bracket combination.

There is an oblong section of unfinished material where the pedals fit; this is so one mold can be used for 170/172.5/175 cranks. These are 175's, so the "unfinished" area is the most exaggerated. They also feature a steel inner ring for extended life but no increase in weight.

Compact Vs Standard
How does compact gearing (50x34) compare to standard (53x39)?
50 x 11 = 123 inches, compared to 53 x 11 = 130 and 53 x 12 = 119.
34 x 23 = 40 inches, compared to 39 x 23 = 46, 39 x 25 = 42, and 39 x 26 = 41.
Essentially, 50/34 translates to 53 x 11.5 and 39 x 26.5.
Here is a gearing chart.

On the road
I was pressed for time and didn't adjust the front derailleur. Regardless, the cranks shifted well. I was particularly impressed with the large chain ring; shifts were definite and quick, something I wasn't really expecting. The cranks seemed as stiff as the FSA's and stiffer than the Dura Ace cranks. Absolutely no creaks; the FSA's chirp a bit.

Q-factor. The non-drive side seems to have more width than the FSA. Drive side appeared similar.

Climbing. We decided to climb Kings Mountain road; fairly difficult 4.5 mile climb. I am not the smoothest "spinner" and prefer to push a bigger gear. With this set up, i was typically in the 34 x 19 (48 inches) which is even lower than my previous bail gear of 39 x 23. I went down to the easier cogs a few times but felt most comfortable in this gear. Result: new personal best up Kings Mountain of 26:54, 2 seconds faster than prior. Maybe there is something to this!

Descending. I did miss the 53x11 on descents. This being said, I've been slowing down a bit with old age, so maybe these are just the ticket.

Overall-very nice crankset. Of course, wish they were a little lighter, but I'll put some more miles in to these and see if the climb times continue to improve.

Escape of the lomster!

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Mon, 27 Mar 2006 16:34:00 +0000

Our lombster escaped from the fish tank sometime last night. Poor fella spent the night scrambling around. He seems to be doing alright back in the tank.

UPDATE: Lombster R.I.P.
So I put the crayfish back in the tank and his little feelers were twitching away; it looked like he was getting rehydrated. He even moved a little. 45 minutes later, he wasn't moving at all. He received an appropriate burial in the back yard.

The "lombster" was actually a blue crayfish, fairly common pet store pet. We got him at ~2 inches long. He was very happy in the tank and molted 4 times. He was 5 inches long (7 inches including pinchers) at the time of his demise.

This is the "eulogy" from my dad:
Dear Sad little family of Meins up on the hill.
Lost a magical being who entertained us all with his naughty ways and the thrill
of seeing him clamber out of his den to seek out his kill
though more often than not it looked like a pill
Magical colors had he(or she?), it lived mostly under the Rock,"Look PopPop:under the Wok!" "Not now Lily we'll go out later to walk, not now.." "NO POP POP the Lombster, under the WOK.!"
I'll miss the little guy who grew so fast and pleased us a Lot.

Snow in the Bay Area #2

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Sat, 11 Mar 2006 23:35:00 +0000

March 11, 2006-lotsa snow dumped last night. Going up Kings Mountain road was DICEY.
Here's a video taken with the Casio Exilim camera-first upload on YouTube. Both are very cool technologies.

Found a fossil

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Mon, 27 Feb 2006 16:48:00 +0000

Found this fossil a few weeks ago while looking for spawing salmon.
See more pics here.

Snow in the Bay Area

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Mon, 27 Feb 2006 16:48:00 +0000

Lily and I headed up on Skyline Blvd - we didn't have the nifty camera yet.

But a photographer working for the Open Space Preserve got some shots of us. He wants to use them for their newsletter. Just got them today.

Great memories

noreply@blogger.com (Twain) — Wed, 22 Feb 2006 05:45:00 +0000

Two cool things these past two weekends.

1. Went with my Dad and daughter to try and see Steelhead spawning in a local creek.
Didn't see any steelhead, but I did find a fossil. Think it was a bone from a mastadodon. My dad is trying to get it professionally (academically) dated. Regardless, awesome time with grandpa and grandkid.

2. It SNOWED in the Bay Area. Was able to take Lily up to the mtn range (2000 feet) to see a nice dusting of the white stuff.

Nature is pretty damn cool.

Prognostications and other thoughts

Stunning Picture

Fishing with Pop Pop

Panama--Yahoo!

ACL Surgery

2007 Prognostications

3rd Quarter 2006

Turning 40

2nd Quarter 2006

Bad day for Yahoo! Stock

Wow. Times they are a changin'

Butterfly Release!

More Videos of Lily

External Hard Drives-Cheap insurance?

Uvas Triathlon 5/21/06

Wildflower 2006 triathlon

Q1 Numbers

Car review: Toyota Highlander Hybrid

IRD Compact Cranks

New bike! Scott Plasma

Review: Ritchey WCS Carbon Cranks

Escape of the lomster!

Snow in the Bay Area #2

Found a fossil

Snow in the Bay Area

Great memories