Archives: 2004 | 2005 |
2006 |
2007
2008 Contents:
2007 Stock Picks
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Picks |
Ticker |
12/29/2006 |
12/31/2007 |
2007% |
|
Indices |
|
12/29/2006 |
12/31/2007 |
2006% |
Microsoft |
MSFT |
$ 29.86 |
$ 35.60 |
19.2% |
|
NYSE |
^NYA |
$ 9,139.02 |
$ 9,740.32 |
6.58% |
Nintendo |
NTDOY.PK |
$ 32.50 |
$ 74.05 |
127.8% |
|
DJIA |
^DJI |
$12,463.15 |
$13,264.82 |
6.43% |
Toyota |
TM |
$ 134.31 |
$ 106.17 |
-21.0% |
|
S&P 500 |
^GSPC |
$ 1,418.30 |
$ 1,468.36 |
3.53% |
Google |
GOOG |
$ 460.48 |
$ 691.48 |
50.2% |
|
Nasdaq |
^IXIC |
$ 2,415.29 |
$ 2,652.28 |
9.81% |
Yahoo |
YHOO |
$ 25.54 |
$ 23.26 |
-8.9% |
|
|
Total |
25,435.76 |
27,125.78 |
6.64% |
Cummins |
CMI |
$ 59.09 |
$ 127.37 |
115.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Caterpillar |
CAT |
$ 61.33 |
$ 72.56 |
18.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dell |
DELL |
$ 25.06 |
$ 24.51 |
-2.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
China ETF |
FXI |
$ 111.45 |
$ 170.45 |
52.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Korea ETF |
EWY |
$ 49.40 |
$ 64.70 |
31.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Brazil ETF |
EWZ |
$ 46.85 |
$ 80.70 |
72.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
India ETF |
INP |
$ 52.45 |
$ 97.79 |
86.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
$ 1,088.32 |
$ 1,568.64 |
44.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
The US market moved
mostly sideways this year; it was difficult to pick. These picks bucked
the trend. Notable stocks
were:
- Nintendo. Amazing growth from
the game-changing Wii console, despite production problems. Nintendo had a larger market cap than Sony at
one point this year. Incredible, isn't it?
- Toyota is now the #2
automaker, surpassing Ford, however the stock had already been run
up last year.
- Sadly, Yahoo and Dell
both struggled this year. Yahoo! had a far too public soap opera and
Dell seems to be loosing ground fast and finding it difficult to
differentiate and diversify.
- Cummins had one of the
largest YOY gains this year with growth in power generation
equipment.
- The big story is International; this
is where the real growth is. Of the BRICs, did not include Russia
(RSX), though it was up 11% since inception in September. China,
Korea, Brazil, and India did fantastic. India was a real surprise
with a whopping 86% ROI.
Other notable stocks this year
Chindia |
FNI |
$ 20.35 |
$ 27.71 |
36.2% |
opened 5/11/07 |
VMWare |
VMW |
$ 80.49 |
$ 84.99 |
5.6% |
IPO 4/15/07 @29$ |
Russia ETF |
RSX |
$ 45.68 |
$ 50.94 |
11.5% |
opened 9/27/07 |
|
|
146.52 |
163.64 |
11.7% |
|
Stock Pick Recap 2004-2006
Since inception, the Prognostication Picks have beat the
market 3 of 4 years and have averaged a 29% return. Here is the recap of
2004-2006.
2004 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Picks |
Ticker |
12/31/2003 |
12/31/2004 |
Change |
|
Indices |
Ticker |
12/31/2003 |
12/31/2004 |
Change |
Toyota |
TM |
68.75 |
81.87 |
19.1% |
|
NYSE |
^NYA |
6,464.00 |
7,250.06 |
12.16% |
Wipro |
WIT |
15.4 |
24.65 |
60.1% |
|
Dow Jones |
DJIA |
10,453.92 |
10,783.01 |
3.15% |
Intel |
INTC |
31.85 |
23.39 |
-26.6% |
|
S&P500 |
^GSPC |
1,111.92 |
1,211.92 |
8.99% |
Microsoft |
MSFT |
24.48 |
26.72 |
9.2% |
|
NASDAQ |
^IXIC |
2,003.37 |
2,175.44 |
8.59% |
Inuit |
INTU |
52.86 |
44.01 |
-16.7% |
|
|
Total |
20,033.21 |
21,420.43 |
6.92% |
Adobe |
ADBE |
39.08 |
62.74 |
60.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sina.com |
SINA |
33.75 |
32.06 |
-5.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yahoo |
YHOO |
22.51 |
37.68 |
67.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
288.68 |
333.12 |
15.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Picks |
|
12/31/2004 |
12/30/2005 |
Return |
|
Indices |
Ticker |
12/31/2003 |
12/31/2004 |
Change |
AAPL |
AAPL |
$ 32.20 |
$ 71.89 |
123.3% |
|
NYSE |
^NYA |
7,250.06 |
7,753.95 |
6.95% |
Google |
GOOG |
$ 192.79 |
$ 414.86 |
115.2% |
|
Dow Jones |
DJIA |
10,783.01 |
10,717.50 |
-0.61% |
Texas Instruments |
TXN |
$ 24.62 |
$ 32.07 |
30.3% |
|
S&P500 |
^GSPC |
1,211.92 |
1,248.29 |
3.00% |
Amazon |
AMZN |
$ 44.29 |
$ 47.15 |
6.5% |
|
NASDAQ |
^IXIC |
2,175.44 |
2,205.32 |
1.37% |
Ask Jeeves |
ASKJ |
$ 26.75 |
$ 28.31 |
5.8% |
|
|
Total |
21,420.43 |
21,925.06 |
2.36% |
Yahoo |
YHOO |
$ 37.68 |
$ 39.18 |
4.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
PalmOne |
PLMO |
$ 31.55 |
$ 31.80 |
0.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Starbucks |
SBUX |
$ 31.18 |
$ 30.01 |
-3.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sprint |
FON |
$ 24.85 |
$ 22.82 |
-8.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Walmart |
WMT |
$ 52.82 |
$ 46.80 |
-11.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sears |
S |
$ 51.03 |
$ 43.86 |
-14.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Research in Motion |
RIMM |
$ 82.42 |
$ 66.01 |
-19.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ebay |
EBAY |
$ 58.17 |
$ 43.22 |
-25.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kodak |
EK |
$ 32.25 |
$ 23.40 |
-27.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ford |
FORD |
$ 14.64 |
$ 7.72 |
-47.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
$ 737.24 |
$ 949.10 |
155.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2006 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Picks |
Ticker |
12/30/2005 |
12/29/2006 |
2006% |
|
Indices |
|
12/30/2005 |
12/29/2006 |
2006% |
Cisco |
CSCO |
$ 17.12 |
27.33 |
60% |
|
NYSE |
^NYA |
7,753.95 |
9,139.02 |
17.90% |
Honda |
HMC |
$ 28.97 |
39.54 |
36% |
|
DJIA |
DJIA |
10,717.50 |
12,463.15 |
16.30% |
Infosys |
INFY |
$ 40.43 |
54.56 |
35% |
|
S&P 500 |
^GSPC |
1,248.29 |
1,418.30 |
13.60% |
Toyota |
TM |
$ 104.62 |
134.31 |
28% |
|
Nasdaq |
^IXIC |
2,205.32 |
2,415.29 |
9.50% |
Apple |
AAPL |
$ 71.89 |
84.84 |
18% |
|
|
Total |
21,925.06 |
25,435.76 |
16.01% |
Google |
GOOG |
$ 414.86 |
460.48 |
11% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Walmart |
WMT |
$ 46.80 |
46.18 |
-1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ford |
F |
$ 7.72 |
7.51 |
-3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Motorola |
MOT |
$ 22.56 |
20.56 |
-9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yahoo |
YHOO |
$ 39.18 |
25.54 |
-35% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
$ 794.15 |
$ 900.85 |
13.40% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 Recap
Quote of the year, 9/11/07:
When General Petraeus presented his update on the war in Iraq,
Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, asked:
"Are we going to continue to invest American blood and treasure at
the same rate we're doing now?"
"Malaise of America. There seems to be
a huge disconnect between US Citizens and the Agenda of the Government,
especially “War in Iraq” and Global Warming. American citizens are focused
on their own realities—paying the bills, getting lattes at Starbucks, and
getting their perfectly packaged goods at Trader Joes, Whole Foods, Walmart
and Costco. Iraq is detached and foreign sounding words like "shiite" and "sunni"
help to marginalize the conflict as background noise. Global Warming is like
a warning from the Surgeon’s General to “not drink while pregnant” or
“cigarette smoking can cause cancer”. In other words, there is a vast
disconnect between the agenda of the Nation and the pursuit of actualization
by individuals. There is a dangerous inconsistency between American Policy
and the people of the Nation; they are not in agreement. This is a new and
overwhelming sentiment that rests in the subconscious of most Americans.
They don't agree with the Nation's policies but feel powerless to make
change. Further, they justify they are busy with their own pursuits so
simply don't try to reconnect or make a difference. It is too overwhelming
yet non-specific at the same time."
Yep.
"As a result, in 2007, there will be a growing sentiment
for change, ripe for the '08 elections. Americans want to feel empowered and
cohesive. This will lead to growing nationalism. Expect this to manifest in
pop culture: Country/Country Rock music; there will be new hits from John
Cougar, Brian Adams, Jewell, Melissa Etheridge, and/or Bruce
Springsteen. There will be new TV shows dedicated to political debate that
attempt to simplify issues for the masses and even allow interactive
"voting" on issues."
I see this in the strong support for Obama and Hilary. But I don't
really see the nationalism. More like a recognition that the US of A is
no longer the #1 super power.
"Global Warming. If you haven't seen
An Inconvenient Truth, you
must. It is a riveting documentary by Al Gore, and the statistics seem
irrefutable. Bottom line: the atmosphere of the Earth is getting polluted
too rapidly; heat from the sun cannot reflect back because it is trapped by
carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, sending heat back to earth which elevates
temperatures. Back to the cancer analogy, it seems that the WORLD has been
given a terrible and terminal diagnosis. And time is running out.
Unfortunately, there isn't universal recognition of the problem -- we live
in denial -- and there is
no cohesive plan of action to combat the effects of pollution-caused global
warming. It's chilling to think that the movie was produced ~a year ago--and
predicted the extinction of Polar Bears due to the rapid melting of the
North Pole. Just this week, news reports surfaced confirming the Polar
Bear's plight. Ironic that the canary in the coal mine is now one thousand+
pounds, 10 feet long, and one of the world's apex predators.
Wow, Global Warming has really struck a chord. It's incredible
how everyone is talking about it and "trying to be more green". What's
more hopeful is the sudden growth and interest in the investment
community. Green is the next Internet from a VC perspective. Absolutely
brilliant that Al
Gore was hired by Kleiner perkins.
Sports
- "Super Bowl. Eagles vs. San Diego Chargers."
Dead wrong. Indy beat Chicago.
"Tour De France. Ivan Basso, unless Vinokourav's team makes it to the TDF,
then he will win."
Dead wrong. Ivan, Vino and a host of others were busted for
doping. TDF one by Contador.
"Barry Bonds: will play next year but have tragic injury broadcast live."
Broke all time home run streak. And broke open the end of the
steroid era (hopefully).
"Michael Vick of the Atlanta Falcons, the highest paid player in history,
will go the way of Kordell Stewart. Brett Favre will play one more year."
Michael Vick goes to jail for dog fighting. Favre has one of the
best years of his life. The thing to understand about
betting/cheating and sports is it isn't about winning the game. It
is about WINNING THE SPREAD. That is where the betting and
corruption lives. That's why it's not that Michael Vick killed
dogs--it's that he was BETTING. Which means he might have been in
higher stakes trouble--and could have been controlled to win or
loose the spread. The basketball ref that was found guilty of
betting influence is a case in point.
Internet
2007 was the year of Web 2.0 and
Social Networking. Lame-O. It is amazing to me that people strive for
anonymity and privacy yet they are willing to "become friends" with
complete frigging strangers any where in the world (myspace, facebook,
etc). What's worse is the gall that people have to think that others
really give a damn about where they are every minute (twitter.com). I do
think FaceBook is useful, though, and is a way to stay connected but not
obligated. MySpace is a fad and will die in the next two years. LinkedIn
is useful and, hopefully, will survive. Nothing really great came out of
the Internet this year except the ones that chronicled them:
TechCrunch (useful),
PaidContent (useful), and
Valleywag (ambulance chasers).
2008
Thoughts
The Next President.
I hope I am wrong, but, America will never elect a Woman (Hilary), a Black
(Obama), or a Mormon (Romney). Probably not a Latino (Richardson) or a
Libertarian either (Paul). The democrats will end up trying to regroup behind
John Edwards. He will loose to Rudy Giuliani, our next president.
How's that for
a prediction!
Technologies
- Lithium-Ion batteries. Though
explosive, this is an incredible advancement. Batteries have no
"memory" and are able to deliver relatively more power, even
featured in the Tesla motor
car. Look for hand held appliances/power tool companies to have
increased sales due to folks replacing their ni-cad powered devices
with new Li-Ion ones.
- Autogas. This is using Propane as an alternative
fuel for autos. Has less emissions and more octane. Will become
prevalent in emerging countries. Already popular in Japan. Look for
cars to be able to use either traditional gas or autogas (commonly
available in India already).
- BlueTooth. As of July 1,
2008, it will be illegal to drive a car and use a cell phone without
a hands free device. Translation: surge in demand of blue tooth cell
phones and headsets. This is amazing technology; it's good it is
being mainstreamed.
- Wii Video games. The Wii will
re-revolutionize video games, making them more interactive and
family friendly than ever. This New Year's, our friends brought over
a Wii with their kids and we had a blast playing it. Every other
person I talked to PLAYED VIDEO GAMES ON THE WII this New Year's.
Amazing. Expect interactive workout via the Wii in
the upcoming months; this will dual purpose the console as something
for both kids and parents.
- In-car Telematics/Controls.
Holy gadget, Batman! Cars are becoming (unnecessarily) complicated.
I recently drove an Acura MDX. The owner's manual devoted
TWENTY-EIGHT pages to synching a blue tooth cell phone to the
hands-free system. Another 12 pages were dedicated to figuring out
the rest of the electronic wizardry. Ugh. Interaction needs to be
improved with hands-free, dvd players, and GPS. This is a growth
area for Microsoft (now working with Ford) and Apple (working with
Toyota).
- Food, water and shelter. The
world's population is growing and we need more fundamentals. In
California, there will be a drought which will drive up prices for
produce. World-wide, there is growing demand for food, water, and
shelter.
- Waste. There will be new
technologies for high-tech waste management. Particularly-disposing
of computer parts and batteries.
Recession
Yes, there is going to be a recession in 2008. Basic costs are rising for food and gas,
and the bottom has fallen out with construction, banking, and
technology. It will take a while for the economy to recalibrate; "green"
ideas won't employ the masses for years to come. Plus, International
markets are continuing to erode the US. Of course, our International
standing (ie, Iraq war) doesn't help.
Folks will spend less this year and will treat themselves to low cost, replayable entertainment (cable
tv and video games) as well as low priced luxuries, aka
the Tootsie Roll theory.
America
There will be a resurgence in American patriotism. "Made in USA" will
become popular.
Sports
Football: Somehow, Green Bay wins the NFC and gets their ass kicked by
the Patriots.
Tour de France: Has lowest TV rating ever but features Andreas Kloden
winning it with Fabian Cancellara coming in second.
Baseball. A bunch of players will get some kind of plea bargain and all
confess at once. Whatever.
2008
Stock Picks
BRICs. Be careful with these
countries this year, especially China. China might be oversubscribed,
just like the dot com bust and sub-prime bust. China may clamp down on
growth in ways that we haven't seen before. India seems like a more
solid bet, though it might be better to pick individual stocks versus
the ETF. I don't know enough about Brazil or Russia. Korea still has a
lot of headroom in my opinion.
Companies to look out fo
-
T - AT&T. The
monopoly will continue to grow.
-
CMCSA - Comcast.
The monopoly will continue to grow...Very cheap right now.
-
TR - Tootsie Roll.
Company is due for a shake up. Plus...the Tootsie Roll theory.
-
PLT - Plantronics
(blue tooth headsets)
-
TTM - Tata Motors
(TTM). India's #1 auto supplier. And just picked up Jaguar and Land
Rover from Ford.
-
ERTS -
Electronic Arts. Of the Video Games (ATVI, ERTS, TTWO, NTDOY.PK),
pick ERTS because of growth forecast and stock headroom.
-
RMKR -
Rainmaker. Cheap stock with lots of upside.
-
PHG - Philips -
largest maker of CFL bulbs
-
JCI - Johnson
Controls - automotive, batteries
-
ETFC - Etrade.
Very risky, but they will get bought out.
-
FNI - Chinindia
ETF.
-
MKTAY - Makita.
Cordless power tools.
-
Bombadier International. Sadly, this company is PRIVATE. They
own a bunch of amazing technologies and products, including Evinrude.
2008 |
|
|
Picks |
Ticker |
1/2/2008 |
AT & T |
T |
$ 41.00 |
Comcast |
CMCSA |
$ 17.70 |
Tootsie Roll |
TR |
$ 26.33 |
Plantronics |
PLT |
$ 25.40 |
Tata Motors |
TTM |
$ 19.45 |
Electronic Arts |
ERTS |
$ 56.76 |
Rainmaker |
RMKR |
$ 6.12 |
Philips |
PHG |
$ 42.34 |
Johnson Controls |
JCI |
$ 34.59 |
Etrade |
ETFC |
$ 3.43 |
Chinindia ETF |
FNI |
$ 27.37 |
Makita |
MKTAY |
$ 41.95 |
|
Total |
$ 342.44 |
|
bull
|