2009 Contents:

• 2008 Stock results
• 2008 Recap
• 2009 Predictions
• 2009 Stocks

2008 Stock Pick Recap

The stock market sucked this year. Plain and simple. My picks were pathetic; down nearly 50%. No more comments.

Stock Pick Recap 2004-2007
Sunnier days have been in the past with returns ranging from 13% to 155%

2008 Recap

I don't have a lot to say. It was a depressing year.

The recession/depression was bound to happen after the huge growth years of "the Internet" and the artificial comeback that happened after 2000 because of the home finance "boom". Too much wealth was artificially created. It's so sad to see the greed and corruption that became rampant in the home loan market.

There were a few bright spots in 2008:
- The Olympics
- Obama

2009 Predictions

2009 will be a year of savings and reflection. If you are like me, money has suddenly become a bit more tight. It has become occasionally overwhelming, if not panicking. Homeowners have a break in that refi rates will be the lowest in decades-if not ever, so refinance! I believe people will become more focused on savings and the more simple things in life. People will return to "the basics" including more simple clothing, comfort foods, and family time.

Sadly, there will be a resurgence in crime. However, people will become more involved in their communities. In short, though it will be tough economic times, the nation will unite on a common cause: we are all hurting a bit. Ideally, Obama will capitalize on this and inspire the nation. Morality and religion will have a resurgence.

But the economy will flounder. "The Internet" will search for new killer apps but fail to monetize them; "Social" applications/sites will do best if focused on local communities. Green technologies will continue to be elusive and widely accessible solutions will not be realized for years to come.

Cycling: Lance will do poorly at the Giro d' Italia due to too much infighting on the Astana Team. Andreas Kloden will win the Tour de France.

2009 Stock Picks

2009 will be a year of getting back to the basics. People will be spending more time with comfort foods and basics -- Campbell Soup, Procter & Gamble, and Walmart. Poorer people will also spend more on cheap luxuries like cigarettes and candy (PM, MO, TR). If The Gap merchandises effectively, they could gain back lost ground, especially since the demise of Mervyns. If gas prices stay low, aging baby boomers may turn to our own backyard and "go RV'ing" (Winnebago). Poorer people will also turn to cheap fast food; McDonalds will grow but to diversify, they will buy Chipolte. For entertainment, folks will enjoy more "staycations" and family time so Nintendo and Hasbro may have some headroom for growth. Finally, Yahoo and Google are ridiculously cheap right now. And the market will come up, hence the SPY choice.

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