Prognostications for 2025
12/31/24

After a 10 year hiatus, it’s time for another round of prognostications.
So here are some thoughts:

Trump and Elon.
It is clear that Elon is controlling the most innovative parts of Trump’s agenda. Keep in mind that Trump is 78 and Elon is 53. Who knows what Trump wants except to be the center of attention; what does he want his legacy to be? Elon has always had shape-shifting big ideas which he is metering out to Trump and Trump can take credit for. Note that Elon can not be elected President of the US because he is not a natural born citizen. But he can influence Trump with “big ideas” and surrounding him with the world’s smartest and most powerful businessmen in history. My God, Trump’s ego must be so inflated right now; he must feel euphoric.

Elon thinks Earth is becoming too populated and we are running out of natural resources. How can you argue with that? So Elon says, “let’s go to Mars”.
 
Elon also thinks the govt is not efficient and there is a real concern with the federal debt. Well, he is right. No recent President in memory has actually tried to address that head-on. Elon views it as a true crisis but it could be simplified, hence the Dept of Government Redundancy. That he similarizes DOGE to the dogecoin is simply him having fun; it is just meant to be an ironic joke that appeals to his ego thinking he is smarter than us. Well, he is.

The balance of World Power.
I don’t know who floated the idea of the US annexing Canada and perhaps Greenland but I would think it has been Elon propagating that idea. In his matter-of-fact terms, the US needs more natural resources and sheer geographic presence. This goes back to the days of colonialism. It makes perfect sense that the US should annex Canada, maybe Greenland to become the largest unified land mass in the World. From Elon’s perspective, it is a lot easier to expand to Canada and Greenland than it is to settle on Mars.

In fact, settling and exploiting the frozen arctic would just be a prototype for settling on Mars. Imagine the arctic circle of Canada. Elon can provide internet (Star Link), solar power and battery back up (Tesla) and they can bury everything under ground where it might be more habitable (the Boring company). His Tesla robots can operate in freezing conditions as well.

More importantly, this concept of the United States expanding the global foot print is a gigantic step toward World Domination. This is the new version of Kennedy’s Moonshot. The challenge for Trump is how does he engage and lead the American public in a similar form of unity and excitement? Perhaps more importantly, who will be his successor as this will require years of concentrated effort, beyond his 4 year term? This is a long term vision.

Don’t be surprised if China starts looking for similar expansion (South Korea is in trouble right now) and Putin has been trying to reclaim from the get go.

Bottom line: I would encourage American’s to focus on the details and implications of what is happening now. It is way beyond partisanship. It is now about Imperialism. And we are now strapped in for a very different ride.

10%
If the DOGE reduces our federal deficit by “just 10%”, the press will call it a failure. But if you truly analyze 10%, it is remarkable. Our federal deficit is $36 TRILLION. 10% of that is a staggering; $3.6 trillion.
For comparison, in most sports, a 10% improvement is the difference between a Pro athlete and a competitive age grouper.

The future of the Democratic Party
Name one democrat who is in in it for the long term who inspires you, let alone a name you even know; all I can come up with is AOC and Newsome and I guess Michelle Obama.
It is absolutely pathetic how the democratic party has not been able to promote figures to believe in since Obama. This is a gigantic travesty and shame on the democratic party for being so incompetent.
Democratic supporters that come to mind are celebrities; Oprah, Beyonce, George Clooney, Tom Hanks, and Taylor Swift.  Meanwhile, Trump has support from the world’s most successful businessmen Elon, Bezos, Andressen, Zuckerberg, and the most influential celebrities - Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Joe Rogan, and even Hulk Hogan (lol).

The new regime is not nationalistic (Trump’s first term) or inclusionistic (Biden). The new regime is capitalistic. It is powered by entrepreneurs who want to change how things are done and to make money, it is not primarily concerned with social equity. The Democratic party has been primitive in their thinking. The experiment of inclusionism without reinforcing the social contract to contribute back to our shared society has failed. It wasn’t wokeness that failed – it was the acceptance and adoption of cancel culture. That created unhealable division which has torn apart this country.

Additional thoughts:

Spirituality. America (the world?) continues to struggle with the existential meaning of life and issues with depression and lack of connection. Organized Religion and more convenient and packaged meditation alternatives will grow.

Drugs and alcohol. Alcohol use is trending down and N/A alternatives are trying to emerge. Ironically, while alcohol use is going down, pot and pot gummies will become more and more commonplace. And “Supervised” mushroom trips will become the new new among the elite. How odd is this?

Obesity and health. Did you know that 74% of Americans are obese or over weight? It is remotely plausible that Bobby Kennedy can fashion some kind of plan to make being fit and healthy cool as long as he gets off his anti-vax bandwagon. Sort of like Nancy Reagan and “just say no” to drugs. Not sure if she made a difference though.

Social media. It is remarkable to me how Instagram has been so durable and increasingly more embedded. Facebook has now evolved in to more of a utility for connecting to new groups and buying used things. TikTok is the source code of the social graph. It can not be stopped. That said Twitter’s stance to not allow external hyperlinks is ridiculous and limiting. And that Trump uses Truth Social as a means to communicate is a terrible conflict of interest. It actually reduces freedom of speech.

AI. AI will have a backlash where original content is going to be craved. People will be taking pictures of rocks on the seashore like it’s some frickin picasso. I don’t know what the ramifications will be to the written word but it feels uncomfortable. Next year I will probably use ChatGpt to improve my “2026 prognostications”. F!

Batteries. Perhaps the most important thing Elon did was create the Powerwall. The concept of actually saving and storing energy generated is so obvious yet no one has really popularized and implemented this kind of solution. PG&E runs the electric grid like you would turn on a faucet; the water just flows depending on how open the valve is. But none of the excess water is saved. Saving and storing electricity is perhaps the biggest and most important challenge we have in an effort to be more sustainable. Yet no company is broadly addressing this except Tesla. This is so strange.

Stock Picks:

• GOOG
• TSLA
• FB
• IBIT – Bitcoin etf. Enter at your own risk.
• URA - Uranium ETF (Nuclear will be cool again)
• LIT – lithium mining ETF
• WY-Weyerhaeuser – if we do annex Canada, timber will be get less expensive
• Battery storage companies

In sum, I would suggest viewing 2025 with eyes wide open.
There will be substantial and uncomfortable change that is, hopefully, for the better.

What has happened: Market Performance since Trump’s second election

bull