Prognostications 2005
January 3, 2005
Responses from:

alright, dude - here you go. fitzy crosses the tape with hours to spare! looking forward to reading peep's DIATRIBES...

 

trends:

 

  • Orchestrated, word of mouth advertising is on the rise with companies like “buzz agents” incent people (by giving them free product) to talk about their clients’ products. Expect that most Americans spending time in an urban area will be the recipient of a word of mouth ad in 2005.

  •  The word “micropolis” becomes mainstream. This is the new definition of the segment of population between metro and rural, and 2004 was the first year the the US census broke out this segment. It is the segment that is likely responsible for george bush winning reelection, and for walmart’s profits rising. Before you know it, everyone is going to be targeting this segment.

  •  More Oversimplification of complex ideas through visual maps – I know that this is not a new concept, but have you ever seen so many red and blue state maps as in this past election? In fact, I’d venture to say that the US is beginning to rely more on this sort of simplification (think USA today) in order to even understand a concept (not just make it quicker to discern the information). Not sure what the outcome is, but I bet we will see more repurposing of this red/blue map idea to communicate to the American public.

Sports: 

Given the laws of supply and demand, the price of a red sox ticket (nation’s hero) at fenway park (MLB’s smallest), should unfortunately increase higher than any other sports team in history.

 

NBA - phoenix 

NCAA - kansas 

NFL - patriots 

MLB – sorry to say, yankees 

NHL – is hockey still a sport?

 

Uniforms

just when you thought that the merchandising of professional sports gear could not become more absurd – teams will begin to introduce DIFFERENT uniforms for post-season play, causing fans to have to spring for yet another game jersey of their favorite athlete.

 

Tour de france

lance will ride, and win. This will be his last. He’ll go on to win both the giro d’italia and vuelta de espania in 2006, erasing any doubt that any rider in history could ever hang.

 

Education: 

  • No child left behind will usher in further mandates for accountability as measured by test scores for public schools. In the long term his will repeatedly prove to be ineffective measuring stick. 

  • Gates foundation investment in high school reform to smaller, transitional schools will prove to be successful improve high school graduation and college preparedness. Success in their model schools will shepherd in more investment in the area

 

Domestic Politics:

  • Bush will continue unprecedented denial of scientific proof of environmental issues, particularly with regard to reducing regulations on emissions and global warming. 2005 will provide a key bump in the road, however, as a major unveiling of this practice will emerge.

  • EPA and NSF, and NEA will have their budgets slashed to pay for tax cuts

  • 2 new supreme court justices will be named – though the choices will be somewhat moderate, the separation of church and state will be in more jepordy than it ever has in the history of our nation

 

International policy:

  • Bush will attempt to rule with a softer stick internationally, and will pick “quick wins” to placate the international community – look for him to play up US involvement in repair efforts in southeast asia.

  • Soviet union will occupy a lot more of the international news page than in 2004. the Russian oil scandal will prove to be another example of state manipulation, and Bush will seek to intervene to limit the government control of oil, under the guise of re-gaining stability in the region.

  • Unfortunately, we have not begun to understand the devastation in southeast asia. Disease and the subsequent effects on the economies for the affected nations will be harsh.

  • Iraq - the general election results will add fuel to the fire, and US will as quietly as possible double the amount of troops over the course of the year, as the administration will finally concede that the region is completely unstable.  

  • Pyongyang will court european powers regarding US stance on north korea, as they realize their ability to drive a wedge between the west

 Investment: 

  • The dollar will begin to recover 

  • Interest rates will rise in 2005 driving down the buyers market. the top end of the housing market will crumble.

  • Savvy Japanese manufacturers will spend record dollars investing in Chinese manufacturing in 2005. it will take years for American ego to get there. 

  • Target will gain share from walmart this year

Pharm: 

  • 3 more “vioxx” stories will affect top drug companies as the scrutiny on their testing practices spirals, much like the accounting scandals of 2001

  • fewer drugs will make it to market in 2005 than the yearly average

  • the sample sizes of tests will increase (from the scale of 100-1000 to 10-20k)

tech:

  • Ipods – ipod for images will fizzle, but standard ipods will continue to be the champion. Apple will partner with a major internet portal to distribute itunes music store, and Itunes music store will greatly extend its lead in revenue from downloads.

  • Universal records will make a strong plea to get acquired by Apple, but apple will turn them down. It will prove to be one of the best moves the company makes

  •  yahoo will offer exclusive Hollywood content, and start to mark a new direction for the company which

  •  the browser war will heat up again – with the popularity and performance improvements of firefox, mozilla, and safari, buttressed with the bloat of IE, the browser is no longer a commodity. Believe it – you thought search was over a few years ago, didn’t you?

religion:  

  • Unitarian church will make a big splash in 2005 in the US. As the product will be positioned as the “non-religious relegion” and will catch fire with 25-40 year olds.

  • This may be the pope’s last year.

entertainment: 

  • as predicted in 2004, reality TV is all but dead, as the life cycle of the latest new show is abysmally short. Though the content has worn out, the format has stuck. 2005 will be the year of the“scripted” reality TV show, where it is fair game to have talented writers craft a scenario that is then played out by “real actors” in the reality format. Quality will rise. 

  • Dollars will continue to produce Sequals and formula scripts from hollywood – international cinema (driven by large scale popularity of bollywood) will become increasingly popular. there will be strong US investment in asian entertainment.

  • Rapper Jay-z took the reigns of def jam records in late 04. he will be well on his way to being fired in the end of 05, as his ego will not be sustained as leader of a small component of a large conglomerate

Art: 

Digital media allows artists to sample, re-use, and repurpose other art with ease and simplicity. A reflection of today’s culture, this type of art will proliferate even further in 2005. lines will continue to blur between copyright infringement and other unauthorized use of another’s property.

 

Grocery: 

The price of eggs will increase! (total arbitrary choice)

top 10 web sites are that you use or think highly of (in no particular order):

1. www.nytimes.com
2. www.yahoo.com
3. www.google.com
4. www.unmediated.org
5. http://www.epicurious.com
6. http://www.techdirt.com/
7. www.salon.com
8. http://www.slate.com
9. www.imdb.com
10. http://www.indymedia.org