Prognostications 2005
January 3, 2005
Responses from:

Here goes:

Flu Vaccine and other health schtuff:
Like everything else in our society, it's all hype.
People are not getting more or less sick, but rather
have the media tell them that they are going to get
sick. So everyone runs out to get a vaccine,
anti-biotics, or some other cure. Even though the
pharm industry is under a microscope with the troubles
that Merck and the supposed shortage of flu vaccines,
they are going to continue to make big money. Plan to
see more ad campaigns between top rated TV shows,
billboards along the freeway and other high traffic
locations like sports arenas.

Sports and drugs:
First, is anyone really surprised by the steriod use
in pro sports or thugs in basketball? This is a
pattern that will continue unless the american public
will not stand for it. This is more about saying one
things and doing another. People will protest baseball
because of this, but will they really not go to games.
Hell does anyone really go to baseball games during
the regular season? Hell this might be something that
baseball is allowing the media to expose to create a
buzz around the sport.

Rules will come around where the line is drawn between
fan and players. Players should be able to take some
harassment from fans, but should never be in harm way
a.k.a. $8 beers flying towards them. (BTW who the F
throws a $8 beer? I guess someone who doesn't
appreciate the nectar of the gods) At the same time,
players should not go into the stands. Rules will come
around where they will seriously punish pro athletes
to get into it with fans.

Box Stores:
Say goodbye to the cute little shop down the street
that has those special nick nacks that they build by
hand. Old downtown is going to be just that OLD. It
will have more cob webs than people. Box stores are
taking over since people are very conscious about
price and will travel to get save 5 cents to save on a
pound of bananas. I say this because that is the
trend, but it doesn't have to be. I believe that store
owners will become smarter business operators and
realize that you can't just make money like you used
to. They will evolve so that they may not carry as
many sku's, but will specialize in items that the box
stores can't or just don't have the local knowledge.
The theme is change or say goodbye

Diets:
Low-Carb is going out and something else is coming in.
What that is, I don't exactly know. If I did I
wouldn't be writing this. I believe that people will
turn more and more into having the pharm companies to
help them in the battle of the bulge. For the hell of
it I will predict that the low fat, high carb diet
will come back  since those low-carbers will crave
real pizza when they decide to quit.

That is all I can think about right now, but I do have
a comments about Twain's Pepsi and Coke comment. Coke
is having some problem with numbers as well as is
Pepsi. RC is gone, there is no such thing. RC which
used to be 7up and canadian dry mixer is really just
pepsi under the name Allied Soda's, I believe. Even
though coke and pepsi sell a lot of soda I would bet
the #1 soda is house brand. The generic stuff that you
see for 1.25 a 6 pack. Again, people don't want to
over spend and will drink generic brands because it is
close enough. This may not be the case among the 6
figure salary earners, but is very true among the blue
collars.

Oh yeah, Top Sites. Here are the ones that I use on a
daily or weekly basis:

1. Yahoo! Mail
2. Yahoo!
3. CNet
4. Google Groups
5. Albertsons.com & Safeway.com
6. DocDirect (grocery invoiceing system)
7. Gov't web sites (WIC, Workers Comp changes, etc.)
8. Bit Torrent Sites
9. DealDatabase.com
10.d-addict.com (korean movies and pop culture site)

Even though I would consider myself an advanced web
user, there are a lot of sites out there that have no
or little value to me. It's probably since I don't
work  for a web company any more and most of my
business is dealing with data that can only be found
in the store and our own network.

So my question to people who build web sites and
develop content is: do normal (non high tech, hourly
wage earners, people with families) use the internet
like you think they do? And are you building products
for them or for investors?

if you got this far in this email, you really don't
have much to do ... do you? hehe

chang