2009 Prognostications

Archives: 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008

2009 Contents:


2008 Stock Pick Recap

2008                    
Picks Ticker 1/2/2008 12/31/2008 2008%   Indices Ticker 1/2/2008 12/31/2008 2008%
AT & T T 41  $       28.50 -30.49%   NYSE ^NYA 7,753.95 5,757.05 -25.75%
Comcast CMCSA 17.7  $       16.88 -4.63%   DJIA DJIA 10,717.50 8,776.39 -18.11%
Tootsie Roll TR 26.33  $       25.61 -2.73%   S&P 500 ^GSPC 1,248.29 903.25 -27.64%
Plantronics PLT 25.4  $       13.20 -48.03%   Nasdaq ^IXIC 2,205.32 1,577.03 -28.49%
Tata Motors TTM 19.45  $         4.45 -77.12%     Total 21,925.06 17,013.72 -22.40%
Electronic Arts ERTS 56.76  $       16.04 -71.74%            
Rainmaker RMKR 6.12  $         0.85 -86.11%            
Philips PHG 42.34  $       19.87 -53.07%            
Johnson Controls JCI 34.59  $       18.16 -47.50%            
Etrade ETFC 3.43  $         1.15 -66.47%            
Chinindia ETF FNI 27.37  $       11.60 -57.62%            
Makita MKTAY 41.95  $       22.18 -47.13%            
Total 342.44  $      178.49 -47.88%            

The stock market sucked this year. Plain and simple. My picks were pathetic; down nearly 50%. No more comments.

Stock Pick Recap 2004-2007
Sunnier days have been in the past with returns ranging from 13% to 155%

2007                    
Picks Ticker 12/29/2006 12/31/2007 2007%   Indices   12/29/2006 12/31/2007 2006%
Microsoft MSFT  $       29.86   $       35.60  19.20%   NYSE ^NYA  $  9,139.02   $  9,740.32  6.58%
Nintendo NTDOY.PK  $       32.50   $       74.05  127.80%   DJIA ^DJI  $12,463.15   $13,264.82  6.43%
Toyota TM  $     134.31   $     106.17  -21.00%   S&P 500 ^GSPC  $  1,418.30   $  1,468.36  3.53%
Google GOOG  $     460.48   $     691.48  50.20%   Nasdaq ^IXIC  $  2,415.29   $  2,652.28  9.81%
Yahoo YHOO  $       25.54   $       23.26  -8.90%     Total 25,435.76 27,125.78 6.64%
Cummins CMI  $       59.09   $     127.37  115.60%            
Caterpillar CAT  $       61.33   $       72.56  18.30%            
Dell DELL  $       25.06   $       24.51  -2.20%            
China ETF FXI  $     111.45   $     170.45  52.90%            
Korea ETF EWY  $       49.40   $       64.70  31.00%            
Brazil ETF EWZ  $       46.85   $       80.70  72.30%            
India ETF INP  $       52.45   $       97.79  86.40%            
Total  $  1,088.32   $  1,568.64  44.10%            
                   
2006                    
Picks Ticker 12/30/2005 12/29/2006 2006%   Indices   12/30/2005 12/29/2006 2006%
Cisco  CSCO   $       17.12  27.33 60%   NYSE ^NYA 7,753.95 9,139.02 17.90%
Honda HMC  $       28.97  39.54 36%   DJIA DJIA 10,717.50 12,463.15 16.30%
Infosys  INFY   $       40.43  54.56 35%   S&P 500 ^GSPC 1,248.29 1,418.30 13.60%
Toyota  TM   $     104.62  134.31 28%   Nasdaq ^IXIC 2,205.32 2,415.29 9.50%
Apple  AAPL   $       71.89  84.84 18%     Total 21,925.06 25,435.76 16.01%
Google GOOG  $     414.86  460.48 11%            
Walmart WMT  $       46.80  46.18 -1%            
Ford F  $         7.72  7.51 -3%            
Motorola  MOT   $       22.56  20.56 -9%            
Yahoo YHOO  $       39.18  25.54 -35%            
Total  $     794.15   $     900.85  13.40%            
2005                    
Picks   12/31/2004 12/30/2005 Return   Indices Ticker 12/31/2003 12/31/2004 Change
AAPL AAPL  $       32.20   $       71.89  123.30%   NYSE ^NYA 7,250.06 7,753.95 6.95%
Google GOOG  $     192.79   $     414.86  115.20%   Dow Jones DJIA 10,783.01 10,717.50 -0.61%
Texas Instruments  TXN  $       24.62   $       32.07  30.30%   S&P500 ^GSPC 1,211.92 1,248.29 3.00%
Amazon AMZN  $       44.29   $       47.15  6.50%   NASDAQ ^IXIC 2,175.44 2,205.32 1.37%
Ask Jeeves ASKJ  $       26.75   $       28.31  5.80%     Total 21,420.43 21,925.06 2.36%
Yahoo YHOO  $       37.68   $       39.18  4.00%            
PalmOne PLMO  $       31.55   $       31.80  0.80%            
Starbucks SBUX  $       31.18   $       30.01  -3.80%            
Sprint FON  $       24.85   $       22.82  -8.20%            
Walmart WMT  $       52.82   $       46.80  -11.40%            
Sears S  $       51.03   $       43.86  -14.10%            
Research in Motion RIMM  $       82.42   $       66.01  -19.90%            
Ebay EBAY  $       58.17   $       43.22  -25.70%            
Kodak EK  $       32.25   $       23.40  -27.40%            
Ford FORD  $       14.64   $         7.72  -47.30%            
Total  $     737.24   $     949.10  155.60%            
                   
2004                    
Picks Ticker 12/31/2003 12/31/2004 Change   Indices Ticker 12/31/2003 12/31/2004 Change
Toyota TM 68.75 81.87 19.10%   NYSE ^NYA 6,464.00 7,250.06 12.16%
Wipro WIT 15.4 24.65 60.10%   Dow Jones DJIA 10,453.92 10,783.01 3.15%
Intel INTC 31.85 23.39 -26.60%   S&P500 ^GSPC 1,111.92 1,211.92 8.99%
Microsoft MSFT 24.48 26.72 9.20%   NASDAQ ^IXIC 2,003.37 2,175.44 8.59%
Inuit INTU 52.86 44.01 -16.70%     Total 20,033.21 21,420.43 6.92%
Adobe ADBE 39.08 62.74 60.50%            
Sina.com SINA 33.75 32.06 -5.00%            
Yahoo YHOO 22.51 37.68 67.40%            
Total 288.68 333.12 15.40%            

2008 Recap

I don't have a lot to say. It was a depressing year.

The recession/depression was bound to happen after the huge growth years of "the Internet" and the artificial comeback that happened after 2000 because of the home finance "boom". Too much wealth was artificially created. It's so sad to see the greed and corruption that became rampant in the home loan market.

There were a few bright spots in 2008:
- The Olympics
- Obama


2009 Predictions

2009 will be a year of savings and reflection. If you are like me, money has suddenly become a bit more tight. It has become occasionally overwhelming, if not panicking. Homeowners have a break in that refi rates will be the lowest in decades-if not ever, so refinance! I believe people will become more focused on savings and the more simple things in life. People will return to "the basics" including more simple clothing, comfort foods, and family time.

Sadly, there will be a resurgence in crime. However, people will become more involved in their communities. In short, though it will be tough economic times, the nation will unite on a common cause: we are all hurting a bit. Ideally, Obama will capitalize on this and inspire the nation. Morality and religion will have a resurgence.

But the economy will flounder. "The Internet" will search for new killer apps but fail to monetize them; "Social" applications/sites will do best if focused on local communities. Green technologies will continue to be elusive and widely accessible solutions will not be realized for years to come.

Cycling: Lance will do poorly at the Giro d' Italia due to too much infighting on the Astana Team. Andreas Kloden will win the Tour de France.


2009 Stock Picks

2009 will be a year of getting back to the basics. People will be spending more time with comfort foods and basics -- Campbell Soup, Procter & Gamble, and Walmart. Poorer people will also spend more on cheap luxuries like cigarettes and candy (PM, MO, TR). If The Gap merchandises effectively, they could gain back lost ground, especially since the demise of Mervyns. If gas prices stay low, aging baby boomers may turn to our own backyard and "go RV'ing" (Winnebago). Poorer people will also turn to cheap fast food; McDonalds will grow but to diversify, they will buy Chipolte. For entertainment, folks will enjoy more "staycations" and family time so Nintendo and Hasbro may have some headroom for growth. Finally, Yahoo and Google are ridiculously cheap right now. And the market will come up, hence the SPY choice.

2009        
Picks Ticker 1/2/2009 1 yr target Target %
Campbell Soup CPB  $   30.43  $     35.11 15%
Walmart WMT  $   57.18  $     63.82 12%
Phillip Morris PM  $   44.12  $     54.64 24%
Altria Group MO  $   15.20  $     23.50 55%
Procter & Gamble PG  $   62.80  $     70.20 12%
Gap, Inc GPS  $   14.07  $     14.83 5%
Tootsie Roll TR  $   25.77  $     21.00 -19%
Winnebago WGO  $     6.32  $      6.17 -2%
Yahoo YHOO  $   12.85  $     15.48 20%
Google GOOG  $ 321.32  $   459.69 43%
S&P index SPY  $   92.96  $   120.85 30%
Chipolte Mex Grill CMG  $   64.14  $     48.64 -24%
McDonalds MCD  $   63.75  $     66.09 4%
Nintendo NTDOY.PK  $   48.00  $     61.07 27%
Hasbro HAS  $   29.60  $     31.78 7%
Total  $ 888.51  $1,092.87 23%

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