• 2010 Stock pick results
• 2011 Predictions
• 2011 Stocks

2010 Stock Pick Recap

How did the 2010 picks do?
Stock picks did slightly worse than the broader market due to too much exposure with For Profit higher education. Others faired pretty well.

• APOL (Apollo Group/University of Phoenix), DV (DeVry Inc.), and ESI (ITT Educational services) to represent the online education segment. All of these tanked because For Profit higher education companies will face increased scrutiny from the Obama administration; on 10/12/2010, the Apollo group warned that their profits would be at risk and the whole category sank. The Fed now manages student loans and the Administration is concerned that For Profit colleges have not been as successful in graduation rates. Additionally, there is the assertion that students who have been attending these institutions have had a higher rate of loan defaults--and have not been able to repay their federally-backed loans. Wait for APOL to announce Q4 earnings and Q1 outlook before reinvesting.
• CMSCA (Comcast). Up 30%!
• ETFC (Etrade), YHOO (Yahoo!), ADM (Arthur-Daniels Midland): Moving sideways.
• CHL (China Mobile). +7%
• AAPL (Apple): Unstoppable? 52% YOY!
• RSH (RadioShack): The "lance effect" has dissipated with his poor performance at the Tour de France and his upcoming retirement. It is doubtful that they will continue to sponsor the team. RadioShack will fade into oblivion.
• IRBT (iRobot): Up 41%
• HGR (Hanger): Added this late. Makers of prosthetics, made famous for creating an artificial fin for a dolphin named "Winter". Up 53%

Here's the historical performance of the "prognostication picks".

2011 Predictions

America's "greatness" continues to erode as the world economy redistributes the balance of power. The shock of the economic downturn has left lasting impressions; look around and you'll see it's still tough to find a new job. Folks will continue to be more frugal. In the short term, if Obama wants to stimulate the economy and generate jobs, he'll penalize companies for outsourcing jobs overseas and place tariffs on imports.

Two best companies to invest in aren't public: Facebook and Groupon. While Facebook is rumored to go public in the next year or so, both them and Groupon aren't public yet. Facebook has become the new Yahoo! and Groupon is the reincarnation of the yellow pages.

Apple continues to dominate. Sony and Dell-- do something! Will Apple ever stop? As they continue to bridge the gap between computing/electronics and our lifestyles, they will continue to become more ubiquitous. They have so many opportunities; imagine ipod-like controls for your car infotainment system--who will be the first automotive partner for them? Meanwhile, Sony and Dell HAVE to re-innovate themselves. 2011 might be the year for them.

Brett Favre and Lance Armstrong. 2011 marks the end of two GREATS. Brett Favre is one of the most entertaining and enduring characters on the pro football landscape. He is fun to watch and captures the "go for it!" and irresponsible nature that makes us all feel young. That said, we will forget him and his antics quickly. On the cycling side, Lance Armstrong was the most magnetic personality in the history of the sport. His epic tale will never be repeated. Unfortunately, there really are no heirs to his throne--and cycling will fade in brain-share for Americans for many years.

2011 Stock Picks: Football Theme

Stock picks have a football theme for 2011; "forgive and forget" and "the Hail Marry".

Forgive and Forget. Americans have terrible short term memory and we love to forgive. Heroic and flawed sports stars like Michael Vick, Kobe Byrant, Ben Roethlisberger, and Ray Lewis have come back bigger and better. To this end, "the forgiven" lead the pack in stocks for 2011, including Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citibank, and BP.

Hail Marry. The companies that need to innovate to survive are Dell, Yahoo, and Sony.