2012 Prognostications

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2011 Stock Pick Recap

How did the 2011 picks do?
In a word, disastrous. Worst showing since 2008.

2011                    
Picks Ticker 12/31/2010 12/31/2011 2011%   Indices Ticker 12/31/2010 12/31/2011 2011%
Bank of America BAC 13.34 5.56 -58%   NYSE ^NYA 7,964.02 7,477.03 -6%
Wells Fargo WFC 30.99 27.56 -11%   DJIA ^DJI 11,577.51 12,217.56 6%
Citibank C 47.26 26.31 -44%   S&P 500 ^GSPC 1,257.64 1,257.60 0%
BP BP 44.17 42.74 -3%   Nasdaq ^IXIC 2,652.87 2,605.15 -2%
Dell DELL 13.55 14.63 8%     Total 21,008.58 23,452.04 12%
Yahoo YHOO 16.63 16.13 -3%            
Sony SNE 35.71 18.04 -49%            
Total 201.65 150.97 -25%            

Here's the historical performance of the "prognostication picks".

2010                    
Picks Ticker 12/31/2009 12/31/2010 2010%   Indices Ticker 12/31/2009 12/31/2010 2010%
Apollo Group  APOL 60.58 39.49 -35%   NYSE ^NYA 7,184.96 7,964.02 11%
DeVry Inc DV 56.73 47.98 -15%   DJIA ^DJI 10,428.05 11,577.51 11%
ITT Educat Svcs ESI 95.96 63.69 -34%   S&P 500 ^GSPC 1,126.42 1,257.64 12%
Comcast CMCSA 16.86 21.97 30%   Nasdaq ^IXIC 2,269.15 2,652.87 17%
Etrade ETFC 17.60 16.00 -9%     Total 21,008.58 23,452.04 11.6%
China Mobile CHL 46.43 49.62 7%            
Apple AAPL 211.64 322.56 52%            
Yahoo! YHOO 16.78 16.63 -1%            
ADM ADM 31.31 30.08 -4%            
Radio Shack RSH 19.50 18.49 -5%            
Irobot IRBT 17.60 24.88 41%            
Hanger HGR 13.83 21.19 53%            
Total 604.82  $    672.58 11.2%            
2009                    
Picks Ticker 1/2/2009 12/31/2009 2009%   Indices Ticker 1/2/2009 12/31/2009 2009%
Campbell Soup CPB 30.43 33.8 11.1%   NYSE ^NYA 5,915.73 7,184.96 21.46%
Walmart WMT 57.18 53.45 -6.5%   DJIA ^DJI 9,034.69 10,428.05 15.42%
Phillip Morris PM 44.12 48.19 9.2%   S&P 500 ^GSPC 931.80 1,126.42 20.89%
Altria Group MO 15.2 19.63 29.1%   Nasdaq ^IXIC 1,632.21 2,269.15 39.02%
Procter & Gamble PG 62.8 60.63 -3.5%     Total 17,514.43 21,008.58 19.95%
Gap, Inc GPS 14.07 20.95 48.9%            
Tootsie Roll TR 25.77 27.38 6.2%            
Winnebago WGO 6.32 12.2 93.0%            
Yahoo YHOO 12.85 16.78 30.6%            
Google GOOG 321.32 619.98 92.9%            
S&P index SPY 92.96 111.44 19.9%            
Chipolte Mex Grill CMG 64.14 88.16 37.4%            
McDonalds MCD 63.75 62.44 -2.1%            
Nintendo NTDOY.PK 48 29.82 -37.9%            
Hasbro HAS 29.6 32.06 8.3%            
Total 888.51 1236.91 39.21%            
    Avg return 24.42%            
2008                    
Picks Ticker 1/2/2008 12/31/2008 2008%   Indices Ticker 1/2/2008 12/31/2008 2008%
AT & T T 41  $       28.50 -30.5%   NYSE ^NYA 7,753.95 5,757.05 -25.75%
Comcast CMCSA 17.7  $       16.88 -4.6%   DJIA ^DJI 10,717.50 8,776.39 -18.11%
Tootsie Roll TR 26.33  $       25.61 -2.7%   S&P 500 ^GSPC 1,248.29 903.25 -27.64%
Plantronics PLT 25.4  $       13.20 -48.0%   Nasdaq ^IXIC 2,205.32 1,577.03 -28.49%
Tata Motors TTM 19.45  $         4.45 -77.1%     Total 21,925.06 17,013.72 -22.40%
Electronic Arts ERTS 56.76  $       16.04 -71.7%            
Rainmaker RMKR 6.12  $         0.85 -86.1%            
Philips PHG 42.34  $       19.87 -53.1%            
Johnson Controls JCI 34.59  $       18.16 -47.5%            
Etrade ETFC 3.43  $         1.15 -66.5%            
Chinindia ETF FNI 27.37  $       11.60 -57.6%            
Makita MKTAY 41.95  $       22.18 -47.1%            
Total 342.44  $      178.49 -47.9%            
    Avg return -43.7%            
2007                    
Picks Ticker 12/29/2006 12/31/2007 2007%   Indices   12/29/2006 12/31/2007 2006%
Microsoft MSFT  $       29.86   $       35.60  19.2%   NYSE ^NYA  $  9,139.02   $  9,740.32  6.58%
Nintendo NTDOY.PK  $       32.50   $       74.05  127.8%   DJIA ^DJI  $12,463.15   $13,264.82  6.43%
Toyota TM  $     134.31   $     106.17  -21.0%   S&P 500 ^GSPC  $  1,418.30   $  1,468.36  3.53%
Google GOOG  $     460.48   $     691.48  50.2%   Nasdaq ^IXIC  $  2,415.29   $  2,652.28  9.81%
Yahoo YHOO  $       25.54   $       23.26  -8.9%     Total 25,435.76 27,125.78 6.64%
Cummins CMI  $       59.09   $     127.37  115.6%            
Caterpillar CAT  $       61.33   $       72.56  18.3%            
Dell DELL  $       25.06   $       24.51  -2.2%            
China ETF FXI  $     111.45   $     170.45  52.9%            
Korea ETF EWY  $       49.40   $       64.70  31.0%            
Brazil ETF EWZ  $       46.85   $       80.70  72.3%            
India ETF INP  $       52.45   $       97.79  86.4%            
Total  $  1,088.32   $  1,568.64  44.1%            
    Avg return 45.1%            
2006                    
Picks Ticker 12/30/2005 12/29/2006 2006%   Indices   12/30/2005 12/29/2006 2006%
Cisco  CSCO   $       17.12  27.33 60%   NYSE ^NYA 7,753.95 9,139.02 17.90%
Honda HMC  $       28.97  39.54 36%   DJIA ^DJI 10,717.50 12,463.15 16.30%
Infosys  INFY   $       40.43  54.56 35%   S&P 500 ^GSPC 1,248.29 1,418.30 13.60%
Toyota  TM   $     104.62  134.31 28%   Nasdaq ^IXIC 2,205.32 2,415.29 9.50%
Apple  AAPL   $       71.89  84.84 18%     Total 21,925.06 25,435.76 16.01%
Google GOOG  $     414.86  460.48 11%            
Walmart WMT  $       46.80  46.18 -1%            
Ford F  $         7.72  7.51 -3%            
Motorola  MOT   $       22.56  20.56 -9%            
Yahoo YHOO  $       39.18  25.54 -35%            
Total  $     794.15   $     900.85  13.4%            
    Avg return 22.6%            
2005                    
Picks   12/31/2004 12/30/2005 Return   Indices Ticker 12/31/2003 12/31/2004 Change
AAPL AAPL  $       32.20   $       71.89  123.3%   NYSE ^NYA 7,250.06 7,753.95 6.95%
Google GOOG  $     192.79   $     414.86  115.2%   Dow Jones ^DJI 10,783.01 10,717.50 -0.61%
Texas Instruments  TXN  $       24.62   $       32.07  30.3%   S&P500 ^GSPC 1,211.92 1,248.29 3.00%
Amazon AMZN  $       44.29   $       47.15  6.5%   NASDAQ ^IXIC 2,175.44 2,205.32 1.37%
Ask Jeeves ASKJ  $       26.75   $       28.31  5.8%     Total 21,420.43 21,925.06 2.36%
Yahoo YHOO  $       37.68   $       39.18  4.0%            
PalmOne PLMO  $       31.55   $       31.80  0.8%            
Starbucks SBUX  $       31.18   $       30.01  -3.8%            
Sprint FON  $       24.85   $       22.82  -8.2%            
Walmart WMT  $       52.82   $       46.80  -11.4%            
Sears S  $       51.03   $       43.86  -14.1%            
Research in Motion RIMM  $       82.42   $       66.01  -19.9%            
Ebay EBAY  $       58.17   $       43.22  -25.7%            
Kodak EK  $       32.25   $       23.40  -27.4%            
Ford FORD  $       14.64   $         7.72  -47.3%            
Total  $     737.24   $     949.10  155.6%            
    Avg return 8.5%            
2004                    
Picks Ticker 12/31/2003 12/31/2004 Change   Indices Ticker 12/31/2003 12/31/2004 Change
Toyota TM 68.75 81.87 19.1%   NYSE ^NYA 6,464.00 7,250.06 12.16%
Wipro WIT 15.4 24.65 60.1%   Dow Jones ^DJI 10,453.92 10,783.01 3.15%
Intel INTC 31.85 23.39 -26.6%   S&P500 ^GSPC 1,111.92 1,211.92 8.99%
Microsoft MSFT 24.48 26.72 9.2%   NASDAQ ^IXIC 2,003.37 2,175.44 8.59%
Inuit INTU 52.86 44.01 -16.7%     Total 20,033.21 21,420.43 6.92%
Adobe ADBE 39.08 62.74 60.5%            
Sina.com SINA 33.75 32.06 -5.0%            
Yahoo YHOO 22.51 37.68 67.4%            
Total 288.68 333.12 15.4%            
    Avg return 6.4%            

2011 Recap/2012 Predictions

America's "greatness" continues to erode as the world economy redistributes the balance of power. The shock of the economic downturn has left lasting impressions; look around and you'll see it's still tough to find a new job. Folks will continue to be more frugal. In the short term, if Obama wants to stimulate the economy and generate jobs, he'll penalize companies for outsourcing jobs overseas and place tariffs on imports.

Well, this certainly played out. Obama was the hero we were looking for but Americans seem too lazy and self-entitled to create change on their own. Worse still is the republican candidates for the next election. Mediocrity at best. America, a victim of it's own success, is quickly becoming less important in the world economy. Where will the next "boom" come from?

Two best companies to invest in aren't public: Facebook and Groupon. While Facebook is rumored to go public in the next year or so, both them and Groupon aren't public yet. Facebook has become the new Yahoo! and Groupon is the reincarnation of the yellow pages.

Think I was wrong about Groupon. The prospect of getting a great deal on service seems to have lost it's luster. That said, I predict Groupon will buy Yelp to provide a more dynamic yellow pages concept. Facebook's upcoming IPO will be huge.

Apple continues to dominate. Sony and Dell-- do something! Will Apple ever stop? As they continue to bridge the gap between computing/electronics and our lifestyles, they will continue to become more ubiquitous. They have so many opportunities; imagine ipod-like controls for your car infotainment system--who will be the first automotive partner for them? Meanwhile, Sony and Dell HAVE to re-innovate themselves. 2011 might be the year for them.

Despite the passing of Steve Jobs, Apple continues to be a powerhouse, fundamentally changing the way we communicate and "consume content". They are more powerful and impactful than Microsoft ever was. The advent of the iPhone is one of the most transformative inventions in the history of mankind. Can you believe it? Sadly, Sony has sunk even farther while Dell has survived but very little differentiation.

Brett Favre and Lance Armstrong. 2011 marks the end of two GREATS. Brett Favre is one of the most entertaining and enduring characters on the pro football landscape. He is fun to watch and captures the "go for it!" and irresponsible nature that makes us all feel young. That said, we will forget him and his antics quickly. On the cycling side, Lance Armstrong was the most magnetic personality in the history of the sport. His epic tale will never be repeated. Unfortunately, there really are no heirs to his throne--and cycling will fade in brain-share for Americans for many years.

Football hasn't missed Brett this year; Brees, Brady, Newton, and others have kept the game alive, vibrant, and entertaining. However, on the cycling front, there is lost luster and no American hero to replace Lance. Fortunately, the good work he has done to help inspire others to "ride their bike" has had a lasting impression. And cycling has now become so rote that it is part of the fabric of our society; everyone is now doing it.

Looking forward to 2012.
Doesn't look great.

  • Another year of mediocrity and the same old issues with the economy and dependence on oil for energy--with no great strides made in alternative sources.
  • The presedential election will have the lowest turnout ever due to mediocre Republican candidates who don't identify with the common man. Obama will be exhausted and will need to really learn how to work with the "system" or we will continue to move sideways. Miraculously, and because the Republican candidates are so bad, he will be re-elected.
  • While the Facebook IPO will be huge, there will be a "pulling back" of the currently untethered social sharing. Privacy will become more important and cherished.
  • Ironically, people will turn to their communities for a greater sense of belonging while, at the same time, feeling further disenfranchised by the concept of the United States of America. This means the govt should return more power to the states.
  • Environmentalism continues to occupy more brainshare. Supermarkets charging for plastic bags is a small but wonderful step in increasing awareness.
  • Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints will win the Superbowl.
  • Contador will win the Tour de France.

2012 Stock Picks:

I honestly don't know for 2012. The only "safe" picks are Google and Apple. I'll throw Amazon and Exxon in as well. That said, here's your stone cold lock on 16% return! Good luck.

Picks Ticker 12/31/2011 52wk Lo 52wk Hi P/E 1yrtarget %vsTarget %vsHi %vsLow
Amazon AMZN  $     173.10  $ 160.59  $ 246.71 91.25  $ 236.89 -27% -30% 8%
Apple AAPL  $     405.00  $ 310.50  $ 426.70 27.68  $ 505.96 -20% -5% 30%
Exxon XOM  $      84.75  $   67.03  $   88.23 8.28  $   91.32 -7% -4% 26%
Google GOOG  $     645.90  $ 473.02  $ 645.00 22.02  $ 723.35 -11% 0% 37%
Average  $     327.19            $ 389.38 -16% -10% 25%
                 
Indices Ticker 12/31/2011              
NYSE ^NYA  $  7,477.03              
DJIA ^DJI  $12,217.56              
S&P 500 ^GSPC  $  1,257.60              
Nasdaq ^IXIC  $  2,605.15              

 

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