• 2011 Stock pick results
• 2011 Recap/2012 Predictions
• 2012 Stocks

2011 Stock Pick Recap

How did the 2011 picks do?
In a word, disastrous. Worst showing since 2008.

Here's the historical performance of the "prognostication picks".

2011 Recap/2012 Predictions

America's "greatness" continues to erode as the world economy redistributes the balance of power. The shock of the economic downturn has left lasting impressions; look around and you'll see it's still tough to find a new job. Folks will continue to be more frugal. In the short term, if Obama wants to stimulate the economy and generate jobs, he'll penalize companies for outsourcing jobs overseas and place tariffs on imports.

Well, this certainly played out. Obama was the hero we were looking for but Americans seem too lazy and self-entitled to create change on their own. Worse still is the republican candidates for the next election. Mediocrity at best. America, a victim of it's own success, is quickly becoming less important in the world economy. Where will the next "boom" come from?

Two best companies to invest in aren't public: Facebook and Groupon. While Facebook is rumored to go public in the next year or so, both them and Groupon aren't public yet. Facebook has become the new Yahoo! and Groupon is the reincarnation of the yellow pages.

Think I was wrong about Groupon. The prospect of getting a great deal on service seems to have lost it's luster. That said, I predict Groupon will buy Yelp to provide a more dynamic yellow pages concept. Facebook's upcoming IPO will be huge.

Apple continues to dominate. Sony and Dell-- do something! Will Apple ever stop? As they continue to bridge the gap between computing/electronics and our lifestyles, they will continue to become more ubiquitous. They have so many opportunities; imagine ipod-like controls for your car infotainment system--who will be the first automotive partner for them? Meanwhile, Sony and Dell HAVE to re-innovate themselves. 2011 might be the year for them.

Despite the passing of Steve Jobs, Apple continues to be a powerhouse, fundamentally changing the way we communicate and "consume content". They are more powerful and impactful than Microsoft ever was. The advent of the iPhone is one of the most transformative inventions in the history of mankind. Can you believe it? Sadly, Sony has sunk even farther while Dell has survived but very little differentiation.

Brett Favre and Lance Armstrong. 2011 marks the end of two GREATS. Brett Favre is one of the most entertaining and enduring characters on the pro football landscape. He is fun to watch and captures the "go for it!" and irresponsible nature that makes us all feel young. That said, we will forget him and his antics quickly. On the cycling side, Lance Armstrong was the most magnetic personality in the history of the sport. His epic tale will never be repeated. Unfortunately, there really are no heirs to his throne--and cycling will fade in brain-share for Americans for many years.

Football hasn't missed Brett this year; Brees, Brady, Newton, and others have kept the game alive, vibrant, and entertaining. However, on the cycling front, there is lost luster and no American hero to replace Lance. Fortunately, the good work he has done to help inspire others to "ride their bike" has had a lasting impression. And cycling has now become so rote that it is part of the fabric of our society; everyone is now doing it.

Looking forward to 2012.
Doesn't look great.

• Another year of mediocrity and the same old issues with the economy and dependence on oil for energy--with no great strides made in alternative sources.
• The presedential election will have the lowest turnout ever due to mediocre Republican candidates who don't identify with the common man. Obama will be exhausted and will need to really learn how to work with the "system" or we will continue to move sideways. Miraculously, and because the Republican candidates are so bad, he will be re-elected.
• While the Facebook IPO will be huge, there will be a "pulling back" of the currently untethered social sharing. Privacy will become more important and cherished.
• Ironically, people will turn to their communities for a greater sense of belonging while, at the same time, feeling further disenfranchised by the concept of the United States of America. This means the govt should return more power to the states.
• Environmentalism continues to occupy more brainshare. Supermarkets charging for plastic bags is a small but wonderful step in increasing awareness.
• Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints will win the Superbowl.
• Contador will win the Tour de France.

2012 Stock Picks:

I honestly don't know for 2012. The only "safe" picks are Google and Apple. I'll throw Amazon and Exxon in as well. That said, here's your stone cold lock on 16% return! Good luck.