2004 Prognostications
Annual predictions of the year to come


Responses from
- Chang So
- Brian Fitzgerald
- George Sollman
- Dan Hankins
- Dave Lundell
- Derrill Stepp

alright, y'all, this is a tough act to follow, but i
will give it my best. twain, you need to post these
things on twainmein.com so we can look back at them in
early '05 - here goes:

Bush will run against howard dean for the presedency -

he will be leading in the polls going into august, but
never seen before pressure from international
community after bush makes some upsetting moves in his
efforts to rebuild iraq, manage the middle east
conflict, and strong arm north korea. at this critical
time, dean will reach out to the international
community and will masterfully gain open support from
international leaders

though southerners will still support bush, howard
dean will win the hearts of the midwest swing voters
by appealing to them as a passionate man who has a
temper but knows how to keep it in check, and though
he openly supports religion, will respect the fact
that he does not openly practice. he will edge bush
out in the upset of a lifetime.

ralph nader will garner 3% of the vote in the
primaries, surprising many people and spurring a
discussion about the possibility of him reaching the
5% necessary to get public funding and make for a 3
party race in 2008. hillary will beat him, though -

Patriots will win the super bowl

Red sox will win the world series

I have no idea who will win the Stanley cup

Sacramento will win the nba finals

Uconn will beat Stanford at the buzzer in the NCAA

NBA will start branding itself as the “world’s
basketball league” and other north American sport
leagues will follow suit by recruiting more
international players in years to come.

The economy is off to the races this year. I agree
with twain, though, that the bellweathers will be the
breadwinners. Technology will be back. Biotech will
rally on speculation that cloning will become big
business in the coming years.

bluetooth will become a defacto standard for computer

the ipod will single handedly account for an enormous
shift in mindshare of consumers. apple’s stock will
soar in 2004.

apple will continue to launch services that are
operating system agnostic, and (though not in 2004)
will eventually make more money selling web services,
peripherals, and software than they do on their
computer sales

blogging as a business opportunity will be all but
defunct by q4. blogging will continue among many as a
cool app.

Google will go public in april, will have a successful
IPO. They will be put under pressure to diversify
their revenue streams. Then, either:
- they will launch their first unsuccessful product.
Over time, they will be forced to monitize their
audience in ways that their culture and core
competencies do not allow them to – in 3 years, their
stock price will be low, and yahoo will buy them.


- they will hire a large direct sales force and begin
to sell their search technology to every company under
the sun. they will thrive, and become a multi billion
dollar business.

Spam will be squelched in the US through short term
regulation and technology fixes, but will increase
internationally. You’ll have more spam in your inbox
in 2005 than you do in 2004.

Text messaging will become popular in the US. Wireless
games and Porn will account for the most of the growth
in wireless space in Europe and asia.

Microsoft will start branding/sponsoring/supporting
and building new wi-fi hot spots.

The UN will gain power in 2004 as consensus building
among nations and exceptional diplomatic negotiation
with the US will begin to influence US
decision-making. This effect will be exacerbated by
some appeasement and political posturing by bush in an
attempt to gain more votes.

Agreed with chang, china will have a breakout year
from an economic perspective. Excessive population
growth, however, will continue to plague it. Many US
companies will try to sieze the economic opportunity,
and the combination of social issues and threat from
the western world will give rise to a louder communist
voice than we’ve seen in years past (cobra/victorino


Toyata will lead the way by producing more alternative
fuel cars than any other manufacturer. Prices will
drop, and the number of alternative fuel cars being
sold will reach an all time high.

2004 will be a bad year for natural disasters due to
an imbalanced climate.


Urban music will become so omnipresent that
presidential candidates will be quoting rap stars in
their speeches. US record labels will begin to sign
international hip hop artists.

Hollywood movies will continue to spiral downward.
there will be more sequels this year than any year in
history, limited original content will be generated by
the major studios. Still, they will clean up at the
academy awards.

Reality TV will get boring. The sitcom will make a

In a bizarre twist of events, Universal will be
acquired by Softbank (haha).

Copyright issues will reach new heights – there have
already been conflicting rulings at the federal level,
and more of this will only fuel the debate. media
companies will form a consortium and agree upon
technology that will be billed as the best attempt to
date to mitigate proliferation of piracy…some geek
from Berkeley will write some software that breaks it.

80’s clothes will make a comeback in the US. As soon
as that happens, 80’s will be out in Europe, and 90’s
grunge style will dominate the runways in milan.
twain, this is your breakout year for fashion!

you heard it first -

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